Previous FIFA World Cup staged in North America have proved happy hunting grounds for the South American sides.
Whenever the tournament has been held in the Concacaf region, the trophy has ended up heading south. Brazil were victors in Mexico 1970 and USA ’94, while Argentina triumphed in Mexico in 1986.
After Friday’s draw to determine the groups for the 2026 tournament in Canada, Mexico and the U.S., what are the chances of another win for CONMEBOL?
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Lionel Scaloni brought the trophy on to the stage ahead of the draw, and the Argentina coach has every right to dream of hanging on to it for another four years. It would be a historic feat — no team has ever managed to retain the World Cup outside its home continent. But things have gone very well for the Albiceleste since becoming world champions in Qatar, retaining the Copa América last year and cruising through 2026 World Cup qualification.
The good news: the team is nowhere near as dependent on Lionel Messi. Whisper it, but in the final of the Copa América, they actually improved after he was replaced. And the captain was missing from the 4-1 mauling of Brazil in March, the outstanding display of the qualification campaign. Messi remains important, but there are other options, such as the Atlético Madrid partnership of playmaker Thiago Almada and striker Julián Álvarez.
The bad news: predictably, it is proving all but impossible to replace Ángel Di María, with his versatility, skill in one-on-one situations and capacity to rise to the big occasion. Even more worrying, no new, top-class defenders have emerged. Argentina’s defensive unit is the same as in Qatar, where it threatened to collapse under pressure in game after game. This time it might prove costly.
Scaloni & Co. can have few complaints about a group that puts them in with Algeria, Austria and Jordan, but there is a potential pitfall straight afterward. One of the new aspects of the draw was to set Argentina and Spain on a course to meet in the final. This works as long as they top their groups. But, as fortune would have it, if one comes first and the other finishes second, they will face off in the first knockout round — and that was not part of anyone’s script.
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Ogden: Ronaldo will love the chance to shine in Messi’s Miami
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A full program of 18 World Cup qualifiers plus a Copa América should have proved more than sufficient to prepare a team for this tournament. But Brazil frittered away most of this time, caught up in turmoil. Carlo Ancelotti has arrived as coach with precious little time to whip a side into shape. Early signs are encouraging. There has been an immense improvement, and Brazil now look like a team, but it is not yet clear that this is a team capable of bringing an end to a 24-year wait for a record-extending sixth World Cup.
Ever the great simplifier, Ancelotti wants to play to Brazil’s strength: an array of attacking talent, especially down the flanks, which will make any defense uncomfortable. He has renewed the Real Madrid partnership with Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo and was quick — and successful — in unleashing the boy wonder Estêvão. But the coach is very aware of a potential problem: a lack of balance. Ancelotti’s first move was to recall Casemiro, invaluable for his capacity to organize the game from the center of midfield, but the Manchester United man will be 34 at the World Cup. Against the best opponents, can Brazil really play with four up front, leaving just Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães in the engine room? And will they be able to do it in conditions of extreme heat? March friendlies against France and Croatia might hint at a reply to the first question. The second will remain unanswered until the World Cup.
An opening game against Morocco looks very intriguing. Under a caretaker coach, Brazil’s first match of the post-Qatar cycle was a friendly against the same opponents — which they lost. Haiti and Scotland appear much easier on paper. Winning the group could put Brazil on course for a quarterfinal against either Mexico or England, and then a semifinal (what a thought!) against Argentina.
1:13
Could Morocco beat Brazil in Group C at the World Cup?
Sam Ogunleye and Ed Dove discuss the strength of Morocco’s squad as well as the potential to defeat group favourites Brazil.
A World Cup in the U.S. brings back some traumatic memories for Colombia, who breezed into USA ’94 on a cloud of euphoria only to implode, leading to tragedy. More than three decades later, everything seems more down to earth and, after surprisingly missing out on Qatar 2022, the current generation is anxious to make its mark.
The team is almost certainly too dependent on the double act of James Rodríguez — who saves almost all his best football for the national team — and Luis Díaz. Argentine coach Néstor Lorenzo found a formula that enabled the pair to click, usually involving a disciplined midfield trio to carry the piano. Colombia went on a long unbeaten run, then had a bad few months after losing in the final of the Copa América, but appear to have steadied the ship and are currently nine games unbeaten.
They are well entitled to aim high after being drawn in a group with Portugal, Uzbekistan and likely either DR Congo or Jamaica. Failure to make it to the quarterfinals would be a disappointment, and so not getting out of the group phase would be a disaster. But do they have the strength in depth to make a serious challenge?
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Ecuador’s mighty defensive unit conceded just one goal in the last 11 rounds of qualification. The team have gone 15 matches unbeaten. And still Argentine coach Sebastián Beccacece finds himself under pressure.
The reason? The lack of goals. Thankfully for him, they managed to put two past New Zealand in their most recent friendly. But they recently put together a sequence of four consecutive goalless draws, and an astonishing eight of their 18 qualifying matches finished 0-0. The team remains reliant on veteran striker Enner Valencia, who scored all of Ecuador’s goals as far back as the World Cup of 2014. Among the defensive riches, there is an urgent need for the emergence of a new center forward. An extra worry is that star midfielder Moisés Caicedo will be suspended for what could be a crunch opening game against Ivory Coast. Ecuador will surely want to have their second-round ticket booked before facing Germany in their last group game. Victory will certainly be expected against Curacao, heaping importance onto that meeting with the current African champions.
There are reasons to be cheerful. Ecuador are quick and physically strong, and no team will relish the challenge of breaking down that defense. The experience of the Qatar campaign has been assimilated, and their solidity all through qualification shows that they have learned to play big matches. If they can only find a few more goals, they could be one of the surprise sides of the tournament.
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USMNT draws a favorable group for World Cup play
Cesar Hernandez breaks down what lies ahead for USMNT with their World Cup draw.
It would be a grave mistake for the United States to place too much importance on their recent win over Paraguay. As previous coaches have complained, the Paraguayans are seldom near their best in friendlies. Their historic identity is of a team based less on flashes of individual talent and more on resilience, collectivity and concentration. The opening opponents of Mauricio Pochettino’s co-hosts might not win too many points for style, but they can pick up plenty through sheer doggedness.
The U.S. has played a part in the development of this Paraguay side. In the middle of last year, they limped away from Copa América in a state of disarray. They had lost all their Copa games and were languishing in World Cup qualification. The position seemed hopeless, until they appointed Argentine coach Gustavo Alfaro. After being a surprise success with Ecuador in the previous World Cup cycle, Alfaro’s work with Paraguay has been even better. The low-key, somber man in a navy suit has become a national hero as his team, with few personnel changes from previous regimes, suffered just one defeat in the last 12 qualifiers. The secret? Alfaro’s connection with the players, his tactical organization and his ability to get the best out of former Premier League striker Julio Enciso.
This is Paraguay’s first World Cup since 2010, where they reached the quarterfinals and gave Spain a tough game. They almost certainly lack the quality to better that, but in a group featuring the U.S., Australia and one of the European playoff winners, they can certainly be competitive.
1:04
Garcia: Group H a perfect start for Spain’s World Cup run
Luis Garcia is confident Spain will make a bright start to their World Cup campaign in Group H.
Marcelo Bielsa seemed like a good fit for Uruguay. Limping away from Qatar, the team needed a generational change, and there was a backbone of players who appeared well suited to the coach’s dynamic approach. The new Uruguay started very well, but then, during last year’s Copa América, the team hit a wall.
Last month’s astonishing 5-1 capitulation to the U.S. did not come out of nowhere. Relations in the camp are clearly suffering a strain. Luis Suárez retired from international football spitting blood about Bielsa’s aloof manner and his lack of dialogue with the players. A team built to attack has not been creating chances — in eight of the last 12 qualifiers they failed to score. And then against the U.S. the defense caved in.
Can Bielsa find his way again? The draw has been kind. Matches against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde offer Uruguay a chance to play their way into the competition and book their place in the knockout phase before crossing swords with Spain. But even at his peak, Bielsa has hardly been seen as a tournament coach. Instead of pacing his side, he has shown a tendency to burn them out early. Can he and Uruguay stumble upon the right blend? It could be one of the most fascinating questions of the entire tournament.
