“To the victor belong the spoils,” the famous proverb goes. Two very different visits to Beirut in August put that into stark relief – Lebanese style.
Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, quietly arrived in the Mediterranean capital earlier this month to meet President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and express Tehran’s opposition to the Lebanese government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah.
“Salam and Aoun told Larijani to screw off, and they weren’t that polite,” a source briefed on the meeting told Middle East Eye.
Contrast that with the victory lap the US took in Beirut this week.
US envoy to Lebanon Tom Barrack lashed out at “animalistic” Lebanese reporters, and his deputy, Morgan Ortagus, brushed off Hezbollah as “pathetic”. Barrack, who is also the US ambassador to Turkey, was widely condemned for what most viewed as racist and orientalist remarks.
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The US diplomats then joined American lawmakers for a cocktail soiree where Senator Lindsey Graham mused about a defence pact between the US and Lebanon.
The stage for these contrasting visits was set in October 2024 when the Biden administration dove into an Israeli-led war to overturn the balance of power in Lebanon away from Hezbollah.
The group was severely depleted by Israeli air strikes and assassinations.
At the beginning of this year, the group’s domestic opposition capitalised on Israel’s offensive and elected a reform government led by army chief-turned-President Aoun and Prime Minister Salam, scion of one of Lebanon’s old Sunni political dynasties.
The Trump administration wants to consolidate those gains.
‘Closer than ever to disarmament’
Barrack’s visit, where he was accompanied by several US lawmakers, comes just days before the Lebanese army is set to unveil its roadmap for how it will go about taking away Hezbollah’s weapons.
The US and Hezbollah’s domestic opponents have tried to disarm the group before, including after its 2006 war with Israel. They failed. But analysts say this time is different.
“Lebanon really is closer than ever to disarmament of Hezbollah,” Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told MEE.
‘You can’t just take their weapons and say, ‘Good luck, go plant olive trees’’
– Tom Barrack, US envoy
One reason is that Israel has continued to pummel the group following a lopsided ceasefire that Hezbollah was resigned to sign in November.
The agreement called for Hezbollah’s disarmament.
“Hezbollah doesn’t have much weaponry left. The Israelis have been bombing their warehouses every week. Not much is going through the Syrian border either,” Hage Ali said.
Hezbollah’s Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, was toppled late last year by Islamist rebels led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, who is now president. He has aligned with Turkey and Sunni Gulf monarchs.
Hage Ali added that as Hezbollah looks to position itself for political survival, it might see it in its interest to turn over its medium and long-range missiles. Barrack and US diplomats say that the US is not interested in Hezbollah’s small arms.
“Israel showed Hezbollah’s long and medium range missiles weren’t that effective against US air defence anyway. So, what is the strategic value in keeping them?” he said.
Current and former US and regional officials also say that Barrack has dropped plenty of hints that the US is not opposed to working with the group if it disarms. The US, for example, swiftly dropped sanctions on Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham after it took power in Syria.
“Hezbollah, terrorist organisation, same sentence – I’m saying it. That’s what it is,” Barrack told reporters in July. “However, in Lebanon, it’s a political party.”
Normalisation-style deal
Barrack has framed the efforts to disarm Hezbollah as part of a broader push to reorder the wider Middle East with Iran on its back foot. The US envoy helped push through a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He is also brokering talks between Sharaa’s government and Israel.
“The end-goal is normalisation between Lebanon and Israel,” one former senior US official familiar with the Trump administration’s thinking told MEE.
‘The Trump administration would love to package a win’
– US official
“Do not underestimate the motivation among Trump’s envoys to expand the Abraham Accords and deliver him a ‘deal’,” the source said, referring to the 2020 diplomatic agreements between Israel, the UAE, Morocco and Bahrain that Trump considers his signature foreign policy achievement.
While a proper peace agreement is far off, US and Arab diplomats say the Trump administration could eye a deal to demarcate Lebanon and Israel’s border – the so-called blue line.
“If Hezbollah is disarmed, that’s the next step. The administration would love to package that as a historic win,” a US diplomat told MEE.
Consensus
For months, Lebanon’s government has tried to balance heavy pressure from the US and Gulf states to move against Hezbollah, with concerns that it could spark divisions in the army and potentially sectarian conflict.
Lebanon was ravaged by a civil war between 1975 and 1990, which pitted Christian, Druze and Muslim militias against each other, including the Palestinian Liberation Organisation.
Hezbollah was born out of resistance to Israel’s 1982-2000 occupation of southern Lebanon. With Iranian arms and training, it emerged as one of the world’s most powerful non-state actors. When the civil war ended, Hezbollah was not disarmed.
Hezbollah is also a political party. Lebanon’s current government includes two Hezbollah members of parliament; the group continues to hold 13 seats in parliament.
‘Hezbollah’s options are narrowing by the day’
– Randa Slim, Johns Hopkins University
In Lebanon, the presidency is reserved for a Christian, the prime ministership for a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament is a Shia Muslim.
Since November, the Lebanese army has disarmed Hezbollah in much of southern Lebanon, analysts and regional diplomats tell MEE.
The government has been trying to negotiate a transfer of Hezbollah’s heavy weaponry in the rest of the country to the army. Hezbollah has resisted this.
“The Lebanese army and government are not talking about going to war. They are talking about how to convince Hezbollah to give up those arms,” Barrack said on Tuesday.
In one sign that Hezbollah could be losing some political cover, Nabih Berri, Lebanon’s 89-year-old speaker of parliament and leader of Amal, another Shia political party, called off a protest in Beirut.
Berri then hosted Barrack and several US lawmakers on Tuesday.
Randa Slim, a non-resident fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, told MEE that the Lebanese army has long sought a political consensus before taking action on disarmament.
“The question now is, is there a consensus? People would argue yes, the government includes all parties and it called for the state to have a monopoly of force,” she said.
“There is always a scenario the army might fracture, but I think there is more confidence it won’t,” she added.
“Probably more important, Hezbollah would lose a civil war. They want to avoid one despite the bravado. Their options are narrowing by the day.”
‘Chicken or the egg’
Disarming Hezbollah is key for Beirut to unlock much-needed reconstruction and investment funds from the Gulf.
Barrack said that Qatar and Saudi Arabia are prepared to fund Lebanon’s reconstruction, particularly in the south. The region, home to many Shia who are Hezbollah supporters and depend on the group’s provision of services, was pummelled by Israel.
‘The Israelis might want to expand further. Netanyahu wants disarmament on the cheap’
– Mohanad Hage Ali, Carnegie Center
“If we’re asking a portion of the Lebanese community to give up their livelihood – because when we say disarm Hezbollah, we’re talking about 40,000 people being paid by Iran – you can’t just take their weapons and say, ‘Good luck, go plant olive trees’. We have to help them,” Barrack said.
A former Lebanese official briefed by the government told MEE that they have been hoping for funds before disarmament.
“It’s a chicken or the egg argument. The government wants to show the south that they are getting something. But Riyadh and Washington are adamant. Qatar will follow their lead.”
The glaring elephant in the room that could scramble the plans is, of course, Israel, experts say.
‘Israel seeks disarmament on the cheap’
Israel has bombed Lebanon throughout the summer.
At least 12 people were killed by Israeli strikes in the Bekaa Valley in just July.
“The LAF can’t disarm Hezbollah while it is being attacked by an enemy state. They need a clear Israeli commitment to meet at least halfway and stop Israeli bombings,” Hage Ali said.
The former US official told MEE that the US has lobbied Israel to stop the strikes to give the Lebanese army time to move against Hezbollah. But Israel still occupies five hilltops in southern Lebanon. In March, hundreds of Israeli settlers temporarily entered Lebanon under Israeli army escort.
After meeting with Barrack in Jerusalem this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office signalled that Israel would begin withdrawing from the country’s south if the Lebanese military disarms Hezbollah.
“What Israel has now said is: We don’t want to occupy Lebanon. We’re happy to withdraw from Lebanon, and we will meet those withdrawal expectations with our plan as soon as we see what is the plan to actually disarm Hezbollah,” Barrack said.
Hage Ali said Israel’s actions point in the opposite direction. This week, Israel’s defence minister said the army will remain on Syria’s Mount Hermon. Israel occupied the strategic heights after the collapse of the Assad government.
“I don’t see Israeli goodwill here. The evidence suggests the Israelis might want to expand further and keep more land,” Hage Ali said. “I think Netanyahu wants disarmament on the cheap.”
Away from the glitz of Beirut, Barrack got a taste of the anger at the US and continued support for Hezbollah in the south. Lebanese state media reported that the billionaire envoy had to cut short his visit to southern Lebanon amid angry protests that included Lebanese waving Hezbollah flags.
“There are two countries that want a failed state in Lebanon for different reasons. Iran and Israel,” Slim said.
