In Bosaso, the thunderous roar of heavy aircraft striking the tarmac echoes across the port city in Somalia’s Puntland day and night.
Such flights have been a common occurrence over the past two years. Recent arrivals to Bosaso’s airbase, however, have become significantly more frequent and accelerated.
And now, they focus exclusively on the evacuation of UAE security personnel and heavy military equipment.
According to flight-tracking data and two eyewitnesses, an average of six IL-76 cargo aircraft have arrived and departed Bosaso per day over recent days – a development one observer described as resembling a hurried evacuation.
“Unlike previous operations, where incoming cargo would be immediately transferred to another aircraft on standby, these planes have been arriving over several days, loaded with heavy military equipment, and departed without delay,” a source at Bosaso airbase told Middle East Eye, adding that the activity was highly unusual.
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Residents of the city have filmed several of the cargo flights arriving and departing and shared the footage on social media, drawing further attention to the unusual frequency and scale of the operation.
In October, an investigation by Middle East Eye revealed that the UAE had been using Bosaso’s port and airport as a supply route to support Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The report detailed the movement of Colombian mercenaries, regular transport flights and cargo labelled “hazardous”, shedding light on a vast covert operation that has fuelled RSF atrocities in Sudan.
However, according to a source in Somalia’s federal government, Mogadishu has revoked the agreement allowing the UAE use of Bosaso airbase and other facilities after the Emiratis were accused on Thursday of using the country to secretly facilitate the escape of a Yemeni separatist wanted by Saudi Arabia.
Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the head of the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), disappeared last week instead of boarding a plane to Riyadh for talks aimed at ending weeks of clashes in south Yemen.
Saudi Arabia then accused the UAE, a nominal ally it has rising tensions with, of spiriting Zubaidi out of Yemen to Abu Dhabi via Somalia’s region of Somaliland.
“When they secretly facilitated the transit of Yemen’s Zubaidi through Somalia, the government launched an investigation and formally raised its concerns,” a senior Somali official told MEE, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“They were subsequently informed that all their military activities in Somalia, including the use of airspace and the landing of cargo military aircraft in Bosaso, Berbera and Mogadishu, had been suspended,” the official added.
“Based on the information available to us, they have been evacuating their security personnel and military equipment to neighbouring Ethiopia.”
Impact incoming
For years, the UAE’s relationship with Somalia’s federal government has drawn controversy.
The UAE, which supports secessionist movements and insurgencies in countries across the Middle East and Africa, has developed close ties with the local administrations in the Somali regions of Puntland and Somaliland, bypassing Mogadishu.
Notably, close Emirati ally Israel became the first country to recognise Somaliland as an independent state on 26 December, and the Israeli foreign minister reportedly visited the region the day before Zubaidi allegedly passed through it.
Recent events in south Yemen, where the STC took over swathes of territory and called for an independence referendum before seeing its gains dramatically rolled back by Saudi-backed forces, unsettled both Riyadh and Mogadishu.
‘The UAE will almost certainly cut funding to Mogadishu, support opposition figures, and encourage the formation of a parallel government’
– Khalif Abdullahi, researcher
These developments have prompted Somalia to move closer to Saudi Arabia, which has actively lobbied in support of Somalia’s unity.
According to analysts, the UAE is likely to comply with Somalia’s order to suspend its military activities in the country – but will continue to closely coordinate with authorities in Puntland and Somaliland.
“The UAE will almost certainly cut funding to Mogadishu, support opposition figures, and encourage the formation of a parallel government in May, when the current president’s mandate expires and the transition is unlikely to be smooth,” said Khalif Abdullahi, a senior researcher at the London School of Economics.
“Since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud did not formally sever ties with the UAE, he may be trying to demonstrate his position through the actions he has taken. However, the UAE does not accommodate such ambiguity; it prefers partners to be either fully aligned with it or clearly opposed.”
The United Arab Emirates has made substantial investments in Somalia, both militarily and economically.
Berbera port remains one of its most visible projects, with nearly half a billion US dollars invested.
The port, which is co-owned by the British government, was intended to serve landlocked Ethiopia as its primary market.
While Somalia currently lacks the military capacity to enforce its decisions should the UAE fail to comply, Ebuzer Demirci, an independent researcher based in Turkey, argues that Mogadishu still retains significant jurisdictional leverage to possibly suspend Emirati investment in strategic assets such as Bosaso and Berbera ports.
“Although Berbera port is administered by Somaliland and operated by the UAE, limiting the federal government’s ability to unilaterally suspend activities there, Mogadishu nevertheless continues to retain legal tools at its disposal over these assets,” he said.
He added that such measures would also carry serious economic consequences for Somaliland, which relies heavily on Berbera port for the export of livestock to Saudi Arabia.
Saudi–UAE competition
Unlike Saudi Arabia, which primarily engages with Mogadishu, Abu Dhabi’s relationship with Somalia is shaped largely through its ties with Somaliland and Puntland.
The UAE controls powerful Somali infrastructure like ports. It has also cultivated strong ties with neighbouring countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya, and the Emiratis exert influence within Somali domestic politics through the financing of select political elites.
Over the years, Somalia has increasingly come to be viewed as a rear operational base for UAE military engagements in both Sudan and Yemen.
These dynamics have contributed to a growing perception that the UAE is not only exploiting Somali territory to advance its broader Red Sea–centred regional agenda, but is also exerting pressure on the country’s stability.
Analysts now believe that the UAE has emerged as perhaps Somalia’s most destabilising external actor.
According to Demirci, the UAE’s reputation in Somalia has plummeted as the “broader picture” of its activities in the country and region becomes clear.
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This means its local political allies are far less effective than previously at advancing the UAE’s priorities domestically.
“The UAE has largely lost its ability to generate societal consent within Somalia, beyond a narrow circle of politically unrepresentative elites – a perception that has turned the UAE into an object of public anger and deep suspicion,” Demirci said.
It’s believed that the intensifying Saudi-UAE rivalry in the region now presents a strategic opportunity for Somalia, as Riyadh has begun paying closer attention to developments in the war-torn nation.
Saudi Arabia has flexed its diplomatic muscles, strongly defending Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
It held an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation conference on Somalia over the weekend, and spurred Arab League and Gulf Cooperation Council statements backing Mogadishu after Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.
Middle East Eye understands that President Mohamud is expected to visit Riyadh in the coming weeks to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
However, any diplomatic, economic or military support from Saudi Arabia to Somalia could be constrained by the looming expiry of the current president’s mandate – now just four months away.
A political standoff with the opposition over the method that elections are held, meanwhile, risks delaying the next election.
“Saudi Arabia’s trust and confidence in him remain very limited, largely due to what is seen as a lack of clear positioning,” said Abdullahi.
“They may, therefore, encourage him to ensure that elections are held on time, so that a new mandate can be secured to help address the crisis in Somalia.”
