When senior Turkish officials met their Israeli counterparts in April in Baku for secret talks, the atmosphere was unexpectedly cordial.
In their initial meeting, the two sides agreed to establish a hotline to prevent accidents, as both countries had troops, aircraft and drones operating in Syria.
That evening, the heads of each delegation and their teams dined together at a local restaurant, led by a senior Turkish intelligence official and a senior Israeli national security official.
As the group was enjoying their meal, something unexpected happened: Iranian Minister of Roads and Urban Development Farzaneh Sadegh, who was on an official visit to Baku, entered the restaurant.
While she sipped her tea, Azerbaijani bodyguards discreetly indicated to her guide that she was in the wrong place. Sadegh was quickly ushered out, apparently without recognising any members of the Turkish-Israeli delegation.
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The incident echoed the situation in Syria: as the Iranians were kicked out of Syria, both Israel and Turkey were pursuing their own specific interests, which sometimes align but are often at odds.
Building and losing confidence
Having long backed the Syrian opposition to Bashar al-Assad, Turkey has very close ties to the new rulers in Damascus.
When Israel targeted several Syrian air bases in April that were about to be taken over by the Turkish military for training local forces and conducting operations against the Islamic State group, Ankara’s response was measured. Encouraged by the Americans, Turkey chose to engage with Israel and seek a middle ground.
The Israelis had two main concerns: if Turkey deployed sophisticated radar and air defences at the T4 air base, Israeli air operations – including strikes against Iran – would be exposed. They were also wary of Turkish air defence systems potentially deterring some of their air operations altogether.
To address these issues, Turkish officials included their Syrian counterparts in subsequent meetings in Baku. As a confidence-building measure, the Syrians agreed not to deploy military forces to certain areas in southern Syria.
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Ankara sought to demonstrate to Israel that it did not intend for Syria to become a threat to Israeli security.
Three months later, however, another crisis indicated that talks with Israel had not resolved the underlying disagreements over Syria.
After bloody clashes between Druze and Bedouin militias broke out on Sunday, the Syrian government deployed troops to Sweida at the request of local authorities, prompting Israel to launch severe strikes against the Syrian army.
As Syrian forces regained control over more territory in the province, Israeli jets continued attacking targets in Damascus, including the Syrian defence ministry and areas near the Presidential Palace.
The air strikes on the capital on Wednesday were particularly surprising, as they coincided with another meeting between Syrian and Israeli officials in Baku, following Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to Azerbaijan over the weekend.
These Israeli attacks left Turkey in a difficult position, with little leverage beyond urging Washington to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into accepting a ceasefire.
On Wednesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan unexpectedly revealed that Turkey had conveyed its views and suggestions regarding the Sweida crisis to Israel through intelligence channels, but noted that a ceasefire would only be possible after US mediation.
His statement signalled that Ankara was still trying to engage Israel through direct channels rather than confront it.
Avoiding Iran’s mistakes
On social media, some called for Turkey to deploy its air defence systems to deter further Israeli strikes, while others argued Ankara should immediately take control of Syrian military bases to prevent more aggression.
Privately, Turkish officials told Middle East Eye they had no desire to risk a direct confrontation with Israel in Syria or turn it into another battleground, especially after 13 years of civil war.
They also worry that such tensions would poison the efforts to reconstruct Syria as a state and also concern international investors, as both Syria and Turkey try to attract foreign capital for their respective economies.
‘The international community – especially the United States, the European Union, and regional countries – must show some sensitivity and put a stop to Israel’
– Hakan Fidan, Turkish foreign minister
Officials believe all crises should be resolved through diplomacy, as Israel tends to use military confrontations as justification for its expansionist agenda.
Turkey is also keen not to repeat Iran’s mistakes in Syria. It does not want to undermine the legitimacy of the Sharaa government or seek regional dominance as Tehran did with its backing of Assad.
However, Ankara suspects that Israel is deliberately provoking crises and using them as a pretext to further destabilise the region through military strikes. Israeli officials have made it clear they believe Syria should be partitioned.
Even if Turkey wanted to rely on hard power, it faces significant limitations.
“For the Turkish army to ensure the security of Syrian airspace over Damascus, it would need air defence systems and aerial assets capable of the task,” said Yusuf Akbaba, a Turkish defence industry expert, in a now-deleted X post on Wednesday.
“With our current inventory, which is insufficient even for Turkey’s own protection, we cannot defend another country.”
He added that countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have much better inventories than Turkey in this regard.
Turkish air defences need modernising
Turkey’s ageing F-16 fighter jet fleet still requires modernisation through pending deals, such as Ankara’s multibillion-dollar agreement with Washington and ongoing discussions over Eurofighter jets.
Although Ankara possesses nationally produced Hisar short- and medium-range air defence systems, their numbers are limited.
Turkish military planners even considered deploying Russian-made S-400 missiles to Syria, possibly at the T4 airbase, but Washington opposed the move.
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Despite repeated visits by Turkish military officials to Damascus, there is little enthusiasm for establishing Turkish bases in Syria.
The Turkish military, by tradition, is reluctant to set up bases deep in foreign soil, and after nearly a decade in Syria, there is little appetite for further adventurism.
More importantly, the Syrian government is also unable to sign the necessary treaties to formally invite Ankara, as Sharaa has yet to establish the interim parliament envisioned by the new Syrian temporary constitution. Parliamentary ratification is required for such agreements.
The prevailing view in Ankara is that diplomacy remains the best way to resolve the crisis with Israel, especially given that the Trump administration, Saudi Arabia and much of the Arab League support the new Syrian government.
“This is a very dangerous situation, not only for the region but also for Israel,” Fidan said on Wednesday.
“In other words, the international community – especially the United States, the European Union, and regional countries – must show some sensitivity and put a stop to Israel. Otherwise, it’s safe to say that undesirable consequences will emerge in the region.”
