Taipei, Taiwan
—
Giant yellow trucks decked with bears sipping boba tea and broadcasting lawmaker speeches, emotional rallies featuring rock bands and rival political camps jostling for support outside metro stations – Taiwan is in the midst of what feels like a full-swing election.
But this passionate political theatre is not to elect lawmakers. Instead it is an attempt to unseat them, using an unusual quirk of Taiwan’s democratic system – a recall vote.
This Saturday, Taiwan goes to the ballot box to decide whether 24 lawmakers from the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) – around 20 percent of Taiwan’s legislature – can keep their jobs. Seven more seats are to be voted on next month.
The outcome could reshape Taiwan’s political landscape, allowing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to recapture a majority in the legislature, currently controlled by its opponents the KMT and the smaller Taiwan’s People Party (TPP).
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, who has struggled to get his agenda through parliament, has endorsed the recall as he tries to keep relations onside with the United States and counter growing threats from China.
Here’s what to know about this massive political showdown
Taiwan’s constitution allows for lawmakers to be put to a recall vote after their first year in office if at least 10 percent of registered voters in their constituency sign a petition. It is a system that makes recalls quite common, but this is a record number of recalls for the island.
Supporters of the recall movement have portrayed their campaign as “anti-communist,” seeking to get rid of “pro-China” opposition KMT lawmakers they perceive as collaborators of Beijing’s ruling Communist Party, which vows to “reunify” Taiwan, by force if necessary.
They say the opposition has undermined democratic institutions and national security by obstructing Lai’s administration, strong-arming controversial laws, freezing defense spending and imposing budget cuts.
They also accuse the KMT of quietly “colluding” with Beijing, citing – for example – a meeting last April between a KMT congressional delegation and Wang Huning, China’s top official on Taiwan affairs.
But campaigners have provided little hard evidence. While one KMT lawmaker facing recall is being investigated for allegedly receiving Chinese funding, no incumbents have been indicted on national security offenses.
The KMT has rejected these accusations and decried the recall as an abuse of Taiwan’s democratic rules, arguing it is a power grab attempt.
At a rally this month, KMT chairman Eric Chu called President Lai a “dictator.”
“The recall is totally unconstitutional and undemocratic,” said KMT vice chairperson Andrew Hsia. “It is important for any democracy to maintain check and balance.”
At the heart of this political fracas is two competing visions for Taiwan and the island’s relationship with China.
The ruling DPP party is openly loathed by Beijing, which has cut off all official communication with Taipei since they came to office. The DPP views Taiwan as separate from China and has seen repeated success in recent years at general elections, especially among younger voters.
The KMT favors warmer ties with Beijing and sees Taiwan as part of a “one China,” though both sides agreed to disagree what that China means. China’s Communist leadership is far more willing to talk to the KMT.
The result of the recall will determine whether Lai and his ruling DPP can implement policies that will shore up US support, or whether he becomes a lame duck president that can’t get much done.
Taiwan has been paralyzed by a political gridlock, with disagreements in parliament turning into brawls at times, hampering Lai’s ability to push forward agenda items, including those that address key US concerns over Taiwan.
In a bid to allay Washington’s concern on security costs, Lai announced that Taiwan will increase its defense spending from 2.5% of its gross domestic product to more than 3 percent. But his lack of a majority in parliament may complicate efforts to achieve that.
Lev Nachman, a political science professor at the National Taiwan University, says the recall result will significantly impact what Lai can do.
“Most importantly, this is going to involve questions of defense spending and how the US-Taiwan relationship is going to proceed,” Nachman told CNN.
The KMT has long maintained that they support enhancing Taiwan’s defense capabilities but argued for prudence to curb wastefulness and ensure the efficacy of weapon programs.
Relations with US and China
In recent years, China has ramped up military, diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan, sending fighter jets and warships around the island on an almost daily basis and looking to squeeze its presence on the world stage.
The recall vote comes as Taiwan works to beef up its defenses against an increasingly aggressive China and show an openly transactional Trump administration that it is doing its fair share to pay for US support.
The US and other western nations have grown increasingly concerned over whether Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s vow to “reunify” Taiwan might lead one day to a devastating invasion.
Key China hawks in the Trump administration, including US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance, have pushed for Washington to spend less time and resources in Europe and focus instead on countering China in Asia.
But the Trump administration has also been pushing all allies and supporters in Asia to pay more for US protection.
The result of the recall could also impact Lai’s standing with the Trump administration during a highly-anticipated and sensitive transit stopover in the US next month while on his way to visiting Paraguay, one of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic allies.
“If the recalls flop and the DPP is not successful, the KMT is going to feel very empowered, and President Lai will be in a much less strong position going on these transit tours,” Nachman said.
President Lai’s DPP party currently control just 51 seats in Taiwan’s 113 seat legislature.
If KMT lawmakers lose their seats, by-elections must be held within three months. That could then provide the DPP an opening to win back enough seats to reclaim a parliamentary majority.
The DPP would need to win at least six seats in the by-elections to meet the 57-seat majority threshold.
But if they oust enough lawmakers – 12 – they could gain a majority immediately, even before the by-elections take place.
A successful recall would empower Lai.
“He is going to feel that he has the mandate to push his policy agenda, in whatever manner he thinks to be appropriate,” added Nachman.
CNN’s Will Ripley contributed to reporting
