Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to offer his predictions and insight across the Premier League, tipping a 5/1 double.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Brighton vs Manchester City LIVE!
The market is completely overlooking a new strand of Erling Haaland that might be about to explode. His headed goals numbers.
Of his 87 Premier League strikes, 15 of them have been headers anyway but that metric is going to be on the increase based on City’s new stylistic approach in the final third. It was clear from the outset of the game against Wolves that the inclusion of Tijjani Reijnders has added a directness to what City now do.
City weren’t turning back inside looking for options, they were looking to hit Haaland inside the area with early crosses.
Haaland is 6ft 4in remember, and built like an Olympic discus thrower – he is suited to this style. He’s recorded five headed shots in his two games this season and a headed goal is on the way. Timing is everything so jumping on now at 9/2 with Sky Bet for Haaland to score a header could be a wise move.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United LIVE!
The matchday before the first international break always hits hard.
Just as the season is gathering momentum, we’re hit with the prospect of England vs Andorra again. Sigh.
An interesting betting angle developing in this final matchday before an international break is that the goal average goes up when analysing it against the season average.
In the last six seasons on the matchday before the first international break, the goals per game average is at 3.3, from a sample size of 60 games. If you compare that figure to the average goals per game across those six seasons in the Premier League, which is at 2.8, we’re seeing 0.5 more goals scored per game in this matchday. A huge difference in a low-scoring sport like football.
That makes the over 2.5 goals line of interest here at Evens with Sky Bet. Having watched West Ham in all three of their matches so far this season, Forest could clear this line on their own. The Hammers have conceded 11 goals and there doesn’t seem to be any signs of Graham Potter going back to basics to address the clear problem.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Liverpool vs Arsenal LIVE!
Ask yourself this: would Arne Slot and Mikel Arteta take a draw right now? The answer is yes, isn’t it? Categorically.
That makes the draw a huge runner from a betting point of view.
It’s very unusual to have a fixture played before Gameweek four involving two title rivals. Looking at the past trends when looking at this type of fixture played early on in the season, draws are very common.
The last five fixtures in the Premier League before Gameweek four to be played between teams that finished that season in the top three all ended in stalemates – the most recent of which was Arsenal’s 2-2 with Manchester City last season.
The draw here is the bet at 23/10 with Sky Bet. It’s the bet of the weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Back the draw (23/10 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 7pm, live on Sky Sports
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace LIVE!
If you need some evidence of why Oliver Glasner is such an incredible manager, just look at his record against Unai Emery, who is arguably regarded as the best pound-for-pound manager in Europe.
Glasner has won four of the last five meetings with Emery with the aggregate score reading a hefty 17-4 in favour of the Austrian.
Emery just hasn’t found a way of breaking down Palace’s mid-to-low block and Glasner’s tactic of utilising Ismaila Sarr’s pace and power has been so dangerous.
Sarr has been phenomenal in these fixtures, registering seven goal involvements in his last three appearances against Villa. That included two goals and an assist in the 3-0 FA Cup semi-final win. He is 2/1 with Sky Bet to either score or assist again.
