Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to offer his predictions and insight across the Premier League, tipping a 5/1 double.
Chelsea vs Fulham, Saturday 12.30pm
This is one of those fixtures that jumps off the page if you are into backing cards. We have a London derby and crucially we’re in a matchday before an international break where historically the card count climbs.
Across the last 10 Premier League seasons, there have typically been 0.64 more yellow cards per game during the final matchday before the first international break, compared with the season average.
Last season for example, the 10 games on Matchday Three produced 5.6 cards per game. That’s a big number.
So, why the spike?
Tough one, but perhaps players, particularly those on the fringes of their national team, want to stay sharp, show commitment and impress selectors. And with no club fixture for two weeks, suspensions feel a little less weighty. So perhaps tackles fly in.
The over 4.5 cards line here is 10/11 with Sky Bet and that rates as a great starting point for building a bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Manchester United vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Highlights from the second-round Carabao Cup clash between Grimsby Town and Manchester United.
Some prices scream value, others scream “trap.” Manchester United to beat Burnley at 4/11? As MC Hammer once suggested, don’t touch this.
Under Ruben Amorim, United have been consistently an unreliable betting proposition, especially against any side that can string three passes together under pressure. See Grimsby.
Of course, Amorim overall has lost 16 of 29 Premier League games in charge. That doesn’t help.
United’s name alone keeps them falsely short in markets which has been a cracking edge to exploit in recent years. It’s certainly relevant here as the bulky transfer fees to bring in the new strike force are influencing United’s probabilities of winning matches without any evidence to back it up yet. The end might be near for Amorim if he can’t find the answers.
Burnley on the draw no bet at 11/2 with Sky Bet is a real runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Watch Ruben Amorim’s reactions throughout the evening as pressure grows on the Manchester United manager after their Carabao Cup exit at the hands of League Two Grimsby.
Sunderland vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
This one has that delicious mix of ingredients I crave when searching for an edge: a dangerous set-piece side like Brentford possessing a centre-back who is due a goal.
Even without Thomas Frank, Brentford continue to be the most effective side in the league from dead-ball situations. The clue is hiring the set piece as manager in that regard.
Since the start of the 23/24 season, they rank second for expected goals from set pieces (33.2) and opened this campaign already creating 1.3 worth of expected goals from such situations, including scoring from one against Bournemouth in midweek.
The set-up is relentlessly rehearsed and it’s producing chances for the same players every week.
Sepp van den Berg has had at least a shot in 14 of his last 16 starts at centre-back for the Bees, posting a total of 17 shots in total. At a first goalscorer price of 25/1, he’s an outrageous value for a defender with clear licence to attack. His first goal for Brentford could be just around the corner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Tottenham Hotspur vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
The Richarlison redemption movement is not a narrative many saw coming this season.
Thomas Frank is a master at coaching forward players, just look at his body of work at Brentford: Ollie Watkins, Ivan Toney, Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa. Frank has unlocked the Richarlison we saw at Everton – playing aggressively and looking hungry to make a difference. Of course, he scored twice in their last home game with Burnley and looks the bet here at 9/2 to score first.
Bournemouth under Andoni Iraola want to press high, play front foot, and squeeze opponents, but that leaves big gaps in behind, particularly through the middle where their centre-backs are encouraged to play aggressively. It’s going to take time to settle into a new defensive rhythm having lost Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi. Home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Everton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
This is a great time of the season for spotting players the markets haven’t quite priced up correctly yet. And right now, Jack Grealish to register an assist is exactly that.
Grealish could be about to cook up a storm. In his new role at Everton, the early signs are very positive for him having a huge influence on games. He’s been drifting into left-half space, just outside the box and Everton have been feeding the ball down that flank.
The markets still price Grealish’s assist odds like he’s stuck in his Manchester City mode, where he was tasked with cutting inside, recycling the ball and making the safe play. But at Everton, under a more direct and counter-attacking system, he’s playing with far more verticality and is a creative force – as shown by his two assists last weekend against Brighton and three chances created in midweek against Mansfield.
Jack Grealish’s touch map and chances created for Everton against Brighton
He is 7/2 with Sky Bet to grab another in a very winnable game for the Toffees.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Leeds United vs Newcastle United, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Leeds United vs Newcastle United LIVE!
One of the early trends to put lots of weight on is promoted teams being very hard to beat at home.
Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester only won six home games between them in the last campaign, but Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland are three from three so far. The atmosphere, energy and early-season excitement mean places like Elland Road are horrible places for opposition teams to play. Everton found that out on the opening matchday.
And, let’s call it as it is: no Alexander Isak, no Anthony Gordon and no proven striker means the chance of no goals for Newcastle is live. Strip away the strikers, throw in a midfield missing bite without Joelinton and Sandro Tonali, and Leeds have a fantastic chance of registering another maximum points haul. The home win at 12/5 with Sky Bet merits respect.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Brighton vs Manchester City LIVE!
The market is completely overlooking a new strand of Erling Haaland that might be about to explode. His headed goals numbers.
Of his 87 Premier League strikes, 15 of them have been headers anyway but that metric is going to be on the increase based on City’s new stylistic approach in the final third. It was clear from the outset of the game against Wolves that the inclusion of Tijjani Reijnders has added a directness to what City now do.
City weren’t turning back inside looking for options, they were looking to hit Haaland inside the area with early crosses.
Haaland is 6ft 4in remember, and built like an Olympic discus thrower – he is suited to this style. He’s recorded five headed shots in his two games this season and a headed goal is on the way. Timing is everything so jumping on now at 9/2 with Sky Bet for Haaland to score a header could be a wise move.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham United LIVE!
The matchday before the first international break always hits hard.
Just as the season is gathering momentum, we’re hit with the prospect of England vs Andorra again. Sigh.
An interesting betting angle developing in this final matchday before an international break is that the goal average goes up when analysing it against the season average.
In the last six seasons on the matchday before the first international break, the goals per game average is at 3.3, from a sample size of 60 games. If you compare that figure to the average goals per game across those six seasons in the Premier League, which is at 2.8, we’re seeing 0.5 more goals scored per game in this matchday. A huge difference in a low-scoring sport like football.
That makes the over 2.5 goals line of interest here at Evens with Sky Bet. Having watched West Ham in all three of their matches so far this season, Forest could clear this line on their own. The Hammers have conceded 11 goals and there doesn’t seem to be any signs of Graham Potter going back to basics to address the clear problem.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals (Evens with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Liverpool vs Arsenal LIVE!
Ask yourself this: would Arne Slot and Mikel Arteta take a draw right now? The answer is yes, isn’t it? Categorically.
That makes the draw a huge runner from a betting point of view.
It’s very unusual to have a fixture played before Gameweek four involving two title rivals. Looking at the past trends when looking at this type of fixture played early on in the season, draws are very common.
The last five fixtures in the Premier League before Gameweek four to be played between teams that finished that season in the top three all ended in stalemates – the most recent of which was Arsenal’s 2-2 with Manchester City last season.
The draw here is the bet at 23/10 with Sky Bet. It’s the bet of the weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Back the draw (23/10 with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 7pm, live on Sky Sports
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace LIVE!
If you need some evidence of why Oliver Glasner is such an incredible manager, just look at his record against Unai Emery, who is arguably regarded as the best pound-for-pound manager in Europe.
Glasner has won four of the last five meetings with Emery with the aggregate score reading a hefty 17-4 in favour of the Austrian.
Emery just hasn’t found a way of breaking down Palace’s mid-to-low block and Glasner’s tactic of utilising Ismaila Sarr’s pace and power has been so dangerous.
Sarr has been phenomenal in these fixtures, registering seven goal involvements in his last three appearances against Villa. That included two goals and an assist in the 3-0 FA Cup semi-final win. He is 2/1 with Sky Bet to either score or assist again.
