A sustained insurgency in Pakistan’s northwest risks dragging the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province into a “war on terror-era” conflict, which saw thousands of innocent civilians and military personnel dead, millions displaced, particularly in the tribal regions, and a major setback to the country’s economy.
New militant tactics, broken government promises and political marginalisation threaten to push the province under the sway of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or the “Pakistani Taliban”, as they are often referred to.
A Brown University Watson Institute study estimates that between 2001 and 2021, Pakistan suffered 32,000 direct deaths from the US “war on terror” that spilled into Pakistan, with violence peaking in 2009. At least 8,000 of those deaths were members of the security forces.
Following a staggered US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which started in 2015 and ended with a full withdrawal in 2021, Pakistan saw a massively reduced number of militant attacks and casualties.
However, a simmering low-level insurgency means that June and July of this year have been the deadliest in a long time.
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According to TTP’s figures, which it regularly updates as part of its propaganda campaign, the group and its affiliates launched nearly 700 attacks on security forces in KP, killing almost 400 and injuring around 600.
The Pakistan army’s figures for the number of militants killed run even higher, but a near-total media blackout makes figures on either side near-impossible to verify.
Most of the recent attacks were coordinated sniper and ambush-style operations focused on military personnel, convoys and bases. TTP militants are increasingly using sophisticated weaponry and tactics.
Powerful sniper rifles fixed with heat-sensitive scopes allow militants to launch nighttime raids against military patrols and outposts.
Gruesome videos of these attacks, recorded as a feature of these modern scopes, where militants film themselves shooting Pakistani soldiers, are then disseminated through instant messaging apps.
The Pakistani government claims that following the return of the Taliban government in Kabul, large numbers of militants have crossed the border from Afghanistan, and leftover US-made weapons in the country have been handed over to the TTP.
Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government rejects these claims.
The militants have also been using quadcopters for surveillance and dropping small bombs.
‘Hearts and minds’
In recent times, the TTP has also been strengthened by smaller tribal groups, also known as “lashkars”, joining the larger umbrella organisation over the last few years, says Rifatullah Orakzai, a senior journalist from Peshawar who has been covering wars and terrorism in the region for over 20 years.
‘While Pakistan’s military is facing a public trust deficit, the TTP wants to cash in on it’
– Rifatullah Orakzai, journalist
“Pakistan is now facing large militant factions with thousands of domestic fighters. Those numbers are being swelled by many who had previously crossed over from Afghanistan,” says Orakzai.
The country’s military and security forces are in a particular bind, Orakzai adds. Even though attacks and casualties are rising, there seems to be no public approval for a large-scale military operation in KP province.
“The locals, mainly in the tribal belt, have developed a soft corner for the TTP,” he says. “There is sympathy for them there; they don’t want any sort of military operation, big or small. Also, there is no fading memory of previous major military operations, which saw massive internal displacement.”
During the previous military operation against the TTP between 2008 and 2010, millions of people were displaced throughout Pakistan.
The Pakistan military’s bombardment – which many termed “indiscriminate”- of the emptied towns and villages saw widespread destruction of civilian property and infrastructure.
“When it came for rebuilding and compensation, it was only cosmetic in some cases, while in other cases the compensation was meagre,” Orakzai said.
Today, the TTP has undergone a strategic shift and focused its attacks primarily on military targets, an attempt to win local hearts and minds. And according to Orakzai, it might be working.
“Noor Wali Mehsud is a very shrewd commander. He knows that he needs public approval. While Pakistan’s military is facing a public trust deficit, the TTP wants to cash in on it.”
Orakzai adds that TTP propaganda is most effective on social media, where it capitalises on legitimate grievances raised by Pashtun ethnic nationalists in response to state-led disenfranchisement.
Middle East Eye reached out to Pakistan’s military for a response, but did not receive one by the time of publication.
Political marginalisation
Decades of socio-economic and political marginalisation at the hands of Pakistan’s Punjab-centric ruling elite are allowing the TTP’s narrative to gain traction, particularly among Pashtun nationalists, says Dr Shahzad Akhtar, a professor of politics and international relations.
In his research paper on the resurgence of the TTP, Akhtar writes that “the long-standing influence of structural factors such as socio-economic and political marginalisation, as well as state repression”, is in part sustaining militancy in the KP province.
“Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s political party is supposed to be the largest in the country, it has been badly undone through post-poll rigging. KP province is their stronghold, never before have those people felt more politically marginalised,” Akhtar says.
Pakistan’s Imran Khan problem
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Pakistan’s powerful military establishment is accused of being behind the ousting of former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s PTI party from power, and engineering post-poll rigging to ensure it would only win a small minority of seats.
In June 2024, the US Congress passed a resolution urging an independent investigation into alleged irregularities in Pakistan’s election. The resolution condemned efforts to hinder democratic participation through harassment, intimidation, violence, and arbitrary detention.
Pakistan rejected calls for an investigation, accusing the US of interfering in its domestic affairs.
Additionally, the United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention, “in accordance with international law”, has called for the immediate release of Khan, who has been in jail for over two years, much of it spent in isolation.
Recent diplomatic overtures between Pakistan’s military chief, Asim Munir, and US President Donald Trump, which saw Munir offering a lucrative deal for rare earth minerals and oil exploration, have further kicked Khan’s incarceration issue into the long grass.
In August 2025, a military court in Pakistan sentenced over 100 PTI politicians to lengthy jail terms for protests in 2023, following Khan’s arrest. Even the chief minister of KP province was sentenced to 10 years in prison.
Shifting case proceedings from civilian to military courts was strongly criticised by the UN and International Commission of Jurists, which Akhtar says has left public trust in the federation “at an all-time low”.
“Ruthlessly acting against legitimate political groups has left the Pashtuns with strong grievances. The current political leadership openly talks about discriminating against Pashtuns,” says Akhtar.
Faheem Marwat, a Pashtun nationalist politician from KP, blames the federal government in Islamabad for ethnically dividing the people of Pakistan and creating further room for militancy.
“Punjabi politicians decide the future of KP without any consultation or representation of Pashtuns. Chief Minister of Punjab Maryam Nawaz openly talks about Pashtuns being terrorists,” says Marwat.
Marwat says by aligning the Pashtun ethnic group with terrorism and militancy, the chief minister of Punjab province, who is the daughter of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and niece of the current prime minister, is dividing the country.
Sharif has, on at least one occasion, used incendiary language against the ethnic Pashtuns of KP. In April last year, she was criticised for labelling the KP province “a corridor of terrorists and smugglers”.
‘Ruthlessly acting against legitimate political groups has left the Pashtuns with strong grievances’
– Dr Shahzad Akhtar, professor
Marwat warns that the othering of Pashtuns is pushing people, particularly from the tribal areas, to see the TTP and other militant groups as their own.
The TTP’s propaganda machine is also cashing in on the Pashtun-Punjabi divide and creating content that further pulls the Pashtun youth into their ranks.
All of those interviewed by Middle East Eye warned that outside of socio-economic and political marginalisation, divisive politics along ethnic lines and the TTP’s propaganda are giving rise to a new challenge of insubordination.
In July, 42 police officers from the Orakzai tribal agency were suspended for refusing to participate in an operation against TTP militants.
In another instance, in September last year, hundreds of police officers led by their chief blocked a major highway protesting against participating in military-led anti-terror operations in KP.
