Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to the White House on 18 November was perhaps the most spectacular in the long history of White House diplomatic visits.
US President Donald Trump gave Mohammed bin Salman the red carpet treatment, complete with a greeting from the US Marine Band, mounted horses, a military flyover and a 21-gun salute.
But beyond the pomp and circumstance was plenty of substance.
Tuesday’s meeting marked the crown prince’s first visit to Washington since he became a global outcast after the October 2018 murder and dismemberment of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey.
The trip effectively closed the Khashoggi chapter in Washington and brought his relationship with the US back to business-as-usual.
The meeting signified a shift in the Saudi-American relationship, with the two countries agreeing to unprecedented levels of cooperation that could shift the power dynamic between them.
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There were several key takeaways from the meeting.
Turning of the page
The meeting represented a formal turning of the page for Mohammed bin Salman after facing diplomatic isolation over the Khashoggi affair.
Although the crown prince denied direct involvement in the hit, he was connected to it, and a CIA investigation concluded that he personally ordered it.
During his 2019 campaign for the American presidency, Joe Biden vowed to treat the Saudis “as the pariah that they are” and force them to “pay the price” for Khashoggi’s murder.
Trump’s exchange with Bruce demonstrated that, from the perspective of the American government, the Khashoggi murder is now being treated as ancient history
Since then, the US government has mostly let bygones be bygones, with Washington’s strategic calculus apparently being that Saudi Arabia is simply too important to ignore.
One moment during Tuesday’s joint Oval Office press conference was particularly telling. ABC reporter Mary Bruce asked Mohammed bin Salman directly about Khashoggi.
Trump interjected angrily, initially answering on the crown prince’s behalf.
After labelling ABC “fake news” and saying it was “one of the worst [outlets] in the [journalism] business”, he said that Khashoggi was “extremely controversial” and that many “people didn’t like” him.
Regarding the murder, Trump said, “Things happen, but [the crown prince] knew nothing about it.” Later in the press conference, Trump castigated Bruce as a “terrible person and a terrible reporter”.
Trump’s exchange with Bruce demonstrated that, from the perspective of the American government, the Khashoggi murder is now being treated as ancient history.
Saudi money, Saudi leverage
Saudi money already lines the US from Wall Street to Hollywood, but Tuesday’s visit will inject a lot more of it.
In May, Mohammed bin Salman pledged to invest $600bn in the US economy. On Tuesday, to Trump’s delight, he increased his Saudi investment pledge to an extraordinary $1 trillion.
Saudi investments could go a long way towards helping Trump fulfil the economic promises he made during his 2024 presidential campaign.
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In addition to the sheer sum of money – $1 trillion is roughly equivalent to what the US spent during its eight-year war on Iraq – the investments could be a major boost to American companies.
Trump also believes the Saudi investments will create “a lot of jobs” for Americans.
But such massive investments – even if only partially fulfilled – shift the American-Saudi power dynamic at least to some extent.
While the US has long enjoyed the leverage advantage over Saudi Arabia, the latter’s increased influence over the US economy arguably shifts the balance in its favour.
With these massive investments, the crown prince has effectively purchased political influence, with industries propped up by his funding likely to lobby the US government on his behalf.
The investments will also likely make it more difficult for the US government to meaningfully push back against Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and policy programmes.
AI and nuclear energy
Saudi investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and nuclear energy will enhance its global and regional influence.
Mohammed bin Salman has long sought advanced computer chips for the kingdom’s state-run artificial intelligence company, Humain, to run large-scale data centres.
During the meeting, Trump said the US planned to approve a substantial sale of chips. The chips, along with broader access to other American technology and expertise, aim to allow Saudi Arabia to compete with the United Arab Emirates, which is similarly seeking to become a global AI hub.
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The UAE recently agreed to purchase hundreds of thousands of AI chips from American artificial intelligence powerhouse Nvidia.
The crown prince and Trump also signed a nuclear energy deal that could allow Saudi Arabia to significantly advance its civilian nuclear programme. Riyadh is reportedly seeking US nuclear technology, material, equipment and expertise that could enable the kingdom to compete with Iran and the UAE, both of which have nuclear programmes.
In 2023, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman outlined the kingdom’s desired scope – “the entire nuclear fuel cycle, which involves the production of yellowcake, low-enriched uranium, and the manufacturing of nuclear fuel both for … national use and … for export”.
Details about the signed nuclear agreement are forthcoming, and it remains to be seen whether the US will allow Saudi Arabia the right to domestic uranium enrichment or insist that it adopt a Gold Standard 123 Agreement.
In either case, it will be a win for Saudi Arabia and the crown prince himself.
Military and defence
Arguably, the most significant gains achieved by Mohammed bin Salman on Tuesday were defence-related.
Trump designated Saudi Arabia a major non-Nato ally (MNNA), and also signed an American-Saudi strategic defence agreement (SDA).
The defence pact will likely be similar to the one Washington signed with Qatar in September, although it is unclear whether it will require the US to defend Saudi Arabia if it is attacked.
The crown prince and Trump also reportedly reached a sales agreement for a fleet of F-35 fighter jets.
The F-35 sale is highly sensitive, in part because American law dictates that the US guarantee Israel’s continued “qualitative military edge” (QME) over all Arab and Muslim countries, and also because of concerns in Washington that the technology could find its way to China.
At present, Israel is the only country in the region with F-35s. Saudi Arabia reportedly seeks a fleet of 48 jets, which would be larger than Israel’s.
Although recent reports have indicated that Saudi F-35s would be downgraded to preserve Israel’s military advantage, Trump said Tuesday that the Saudi jets would be “top of the line”.
The MNNA designation, SDA and F-35 purchase will enhance Saudi Arabia’s deterrence capacity and shift the balance of power in the Middle East.
Although Israel will continue to possess the region’s most powerful military, the Saudis will close the gap and surpass other regional powers, including Iran.
The aftermath
Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Arabia are big winners from Tuesday’s visit and the agreements signed.
The crown prince has now fully emerged from the Khashoggi murder affair, and Saudi Arabia has purchased influence in the American economic, political and defence spheres.
He can return to Saudi Arabia showing tangible progress on his Vision 2030 aspirations, which involve strengthening Saudi military capacity and diversifying the national economy away from oil and into artificial intelligence and nuclear energy, among other areas.
Trump will also be able to sell Tuesday’s meetings and signed agreements as successes for him and the US.
At a minimum, the president will be able to point to hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign investments, likely significant job creation and the strengthening of ties with an important ally.
The crown prince has now fully emerged from the Khashoggi murder affair, and Saudi Arabia has purchased influence in the American economic, political and defence spheres
But a wide range of onlookers will be dismayed at what took place in Washington.
Many journalists will undoubtedly be troubled and angered by the ease with which Trump and much of the American political establishment have forgotten about the brutal murder of an American resident and columnist for one of the country’s prominent newspapers.
Israel will be concerned about increased Saudi influence and power, and especially about the F-35 sale. Israel had reportedly urged Trump to condition the sale on a Saudi-Israel normalisation deal. But the Oval Office press conference made it clear that the sale would proceed without a normalisation deal.
Palestinians may simultaneously be concerned by Mohammed bin Salman’s apparent embrace of Trump’s Gaza plan, and hopeful about the fact that Riyadh is still refusing to normalise relations with Israel.
Cautiously optimistic Palestinians and their supporters may hope that the Saudis will insist on a viable Palestinian state with full self-determination rights. Trump indicated that he and the crown prince discussed the issue on Tuesday, but no details were provided.
More pessimistic Palestinians will be concerned that the Palestinian cause is being pushed out of view.
The UAE and Iran will both be concerned about signed agreements, but for different reasons. Iran will lament Saudi Arabia’s increased military prowess, while the UAE will worry about how the Saudis’ artificial intelligence industry will impact the budding UAE-Saudi political and economic rivalry.
More broadly, Arabs interested in democracy, freedom and human rights will be discouraged by the crown prince’s increased power and influence. After the Arab Spring, the Saudi government helped guide counterrevolutions in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, and elsewhere.
For now, counterrevolutionary forces have won. Tuesday’s White House celebration of Mohammed bin Salman was a kind of victory dance.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.
