Lebanon: What will it take to disarm Hezbollah?

Amid pressure from the US, the government of Lebanon has increased its efforts to disarm Hezbollah, the Shia political party and militant group.

Often described as a “state within the state”, Hezbollah is formally distinct from the Lebanese government.

It has had an armed presence within the country since emerging as a resistance movement to the Israeli invasion of 1982.

Tension between Hezbollah and Israel increased after 8 October 2023, although confrontations between the two armies have occurred for decades. 

The most serious escalation came in September 2024, when Israel mounted an extensive bombing campaign over Lebanon, which was preceded by the booby-trapping of thousands of pagers and mobile phones.

Since then, Israel has routinely violated the terms of a ceasefire agreement negotiated on 27 November 2024 with ongoing air strikes and the continual occupation of five locations in Lebanon. 

Against this backdrop, Middle East Eye explains the US-led efforts to disarm Hezbollah.

How powerful is Hezbollah now?

In 2021, Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah at the time, said that the group had a fighting force of 100,000 troops – 15,000 more than Lebanon’s official army. 

Although some military analysts say that its current strength is lower, at between 20,000 and 50,000 soldiers, such an estimate still puts the group among the world’s largest non-state military forces.

But Hezbollah has suffered severe setbacks during the past year. Much of its leadership, including Nasrallah, who had led the organisation since 1992, was assassinated by Israeli missile strikes in 2024. 

In December 2024, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, a key Hezbollah ally, was toppled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Turkey- and Gulf-aligned rebel group.

This also severed a vital stretch of the land bridge that links Lebanon with Iran, Hezbollah’s main supplier of arms and head of the “Axis of Resistance”, which also includes Syria, Yemen and several major groups.

And much of Hezbollah’s heartland in southern Lebanon has been pummelled by Israeli shelling, destroying around 70 percent of buildings in three municipalities, according to Amnesty International.

Hezbollah is listed as a terrorist organisation by the US, UK, Germany, Australia, Canada, the Gulf Cooperation Council and much of the Arab League. But it still has soldiers, surveillance drones, and an estimated 130,000 rockets and missiles.

Hezbollah also reportedly holds underground reserves of the Iranian Fateh-110 and the Scud missiles, capable of ranges of 250-300km and 300-550km respectively. 

Why does Beirut want to disarm Hezbollah?

This year has seen major changes in Lebanese politics. Two years of political deadlock, during which Lebanon’s parliament could not agree on a president, ended in January 2025 when a weakened Hezbollah agreed to support army commander-in-chief Joseph Aoun as a compromise candidate. 

A new prime minister, International Court of Justice president Nawaf Salam, was appointed the following week. In contrast, Hezbollah had sought instead to reappoint caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, its long-time ally.

Both Aoun and Salam enjoy the support of the US and Saudi Arabia, as well as Hezbollah’s domestic rivals. 

It is amid this climate that long-floated calls to disarm Hezbollah have gained serious political traction, with backers pointing to the security and economic benefits for the western-friendly Lebanese government. 

Sunni states, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have pledged significant economic aid to Lebanon – which faces a prolonged economic crisis – if Hezbollah is successfully disarmed. 

What is the US plan for Lebanon?

Tom Barrack, the US special envoy to Syria and Lebanon, has accelerated long-running US support for the disarmament of Hezbollah.

In July, he tabled a roadmap for the sweeping overhaul of Lebanon’s security policy, including plans to both disarm Hezbollah and end Israel’s air strikes and occupation within four months.

But Barrack has emphasised that disarming Hezbollah will require significant economic incentives, given the number of Lebanese who will be unemployed once the force is disarmed.

“If we’re asking a portion of the Lebanese community to give up their livelihood – because when we say disarm Hezbollah, we’re talking about 40,000 people being paid by Iran – you can’t just take their weapons and say, ‘Good luck, go plant olive trees,’” Barrack said on 26 August.

Barrack said that discussions had begun about holding an “economic forum” in southern Lebanon to offer alternative revenue streams for disarmed Hezbollah militants, and “not determined by whether Iran wants it or not”.

While the fine details of the plan remain opaque, Barrack has stated: “We have to have money coming into the system. The money will come from the Gulf. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are partners and are willing to do that.”

With Iran on the back foot following June’s attacks by Israel and the US, many see the Barrack plan as part of a broader attempt by Washington to reorder the region away from Tehran. 

“The end goal is normalisation between Lebanon and Israel,” one former senior US official familiar with the Trump administration’s thinking told MEE in August.

What has happened so far?

At first, it seemed that Salam intended to adopt a more moderate approach towards disarmament, including a consensual relationship with Hezbollah.

But he has since accelerated the push to disarm the group amid continual US pressure, including the Lebanese government formally adopting the objectives of the US roadmap after Shia ministers withdrew from parliament on 8 August. 

This has rapidly soured relations between Hezbollah and Salam, with the former accusing the prime minister of reneging on his prior commitments.

A key cabinet meeting discussing the disarmament plan was held on 5 September, only for the five Shia ministers from Hezbollah and its Amal allies to walk out.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s efforts to disarm non-state factions have begun elsewhere, beginning with the disarmament of Palestinian factions in refugee camps in August.

Having met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu two days earlier, Barrack said that Israel supported the terms of his plan.

Barrack said: “What Israel has now said is: ‘We don’t want to occupy Lebanon. We’re happy to withdraw from Lebanon, and we will meet those withdrawal expectations with our plan as soon as we see what is the plan to actually disarm Hezbollah’.”

But asked in July whether Washington would guarantee Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, Barrack responded that the US “has no business in trying to compel Israel to do anything”.

What do people in Lebanon think?

In Hezbollah’s stronghold of southern Lebanon, where thousands lost their homes amid Israel’s bombing campaign, many are sceptical about Barrack’s promises of economic prosperity.

Meanwhile, support for Hezbollah and its Amal allies was strong in May’s municipal elections, Lebanon’s first since 2016, although turnout was low.

‘The resistance will not hand over its weapons as long as aggression and occupation continue’

–  Naim Qassem, Hezbollah leader

But the group’s popularity has become increasingly strained beyond its core Shia constituency.

Economic stagnation – compounded by the ongoing destruction caused by Israeli attacks – has made many Lebanese view the party as an obstacle to positive change.

This has extended to several of Hezbollah’s usual domestic allies, including the Free Patriotic Movement and former presidential candidate Suleiman Frangieh, who have recently backed disarming the group.

What has Hezbollah said?

Hezbollah has been highly critical of the US roadmap since it was first announced. “We are a people who do not surrender,” said Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem in July.

“The resistance will not hand over its weapons as long as aggression and occupation continue. We will fight if necessary to counter this project, whatever the cost.”

Hezbollah has kept this position despite growing pressure from the US and the Lebanese government, denouncing the cabinet’s 5 August decision to ratify disarmament plans as a “grave sin” that strips Lebanon of the “weapon of resistance” against Israel.

Highlighting Israel’s ceasefire violations, Qassem said in a recorded speech that aired on 25 August: “Let them implement the [ceasefire] agreement … then after that we will discuss the defence strategy [including potential disarmament].”

How has the region responded?

Iran, Hezbollah’s most powerful ally and benefactor, has criticised Lebanon’s plans to disarm the group.

“This is not the first time they’ve tried to strip Hezbollah of its weapons,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on 7 August. “The reason is clear: the power of resistance has proven itself in the field.”

Beirut received the comments angrily and pushed back against Iranian opposition to the move when Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, visited Lebanon in early August. 

Other groups allied with Iran and Hezbollah within the Axis of Resistance, such as the Houthis in Yemen, have also criticised the disarmament push.  

In contrast, Syria, once a key ally of Hezbollah under Bashar al-Assad, has voiced no opposition.

President Ahmed al-Sharaa is scheduled to visit Lebanon in September, offering a key opportunity to voice support, although this may be compromised by wider tensions between the two states, due to border security and Syrian prisoners held in Lebanon.

What has Israel said?

Israel is currently showing little commitment to scaling down its military offensive on Lebanon in light of the Barrack proposition, and has made no announcement that it will do so. 

On 1 September, one person was killed in an Israeli drone attack on southern Lebanon, with the Israeli military releasing a statement later that day saying that it would “continue to operate to remove threats posed to the citizens of Israel”. 

What happens next?

Hezbollah’s leadership is showing little signs of responding to Barrack’s economic incentives to consent to disarmament.

On 5 September, Lebanon’s Information Minister Paul Morcos said that “the Lebanese army will begin implementing the [disarmament] plan, but in accordance with the available capabilities, which are limited in terms of logistics, material and human resources”.

But with details of the plan kept confidential, it remains unclear what firmer steps the Lebanese army will take to force Hezbollah to disarm. 

And despite pressure and financial incentives from Washington, the Lebanese government will be reluctant to engage in a direct confrontation with Hezbollah that many fear could result in a full-scale civil war.