Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., Nov. 26, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed Tuesday as investors discounted next week’s final policy meeting of the year by the Federal Reserve and tried to look ahead and gauge the course of the economy and inflation.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury stood at 4.09%, while the 30-year Treasury yield rose less than a basis point to 4.747%. The 2-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to short-term policy rates, fell more than 2 basis points to 3.514%.
One basis point equals 0.01% and yields move inversely to prices.
Global markets are looking ahead to the Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee’s final meeting of the year, scheduled for Dec. 9-10.
Investor expectations of a quarter-point rate cut next week have soared recently, with interest rates futures trading showing an approximately 89% likelihood that policy will be eased next week and the fed funds rate decline to 3.50% to 3.75%, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. A few weeks ago, the market was pricing in just a 35% chance of a rate cut next week.
Markets are looking ahead to a series of data releases this week that may offer clues on the shape of the U.S. economy — and the likelihood of future rate cuts beyond next week. They include the ADP Employment Survey for November due on Wednesday, weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday and the delayed September personal consumption expenditures index on Friday, when October durable goods and factor orders and December’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers will also be released.
Fed officials are in a communications blackout period ahead of the Open Market Committee meeting next week, leaving investors focused on incoming economic data reports to inform their outlook on U.S. interest rates.
On Monday, the ISM manufacturing index came in below forecasts for November.
