Qatar has prided itself on being a go-between, a mediator, a seemingly neutral broker in a number of global conflicts.
Now, for the first time, it has been drawn directly into Israel’s ever-expanding regional war.
Israel’s surprise attack targeting a meeting of Hamas officials in Doha killed six people on Tuesday, including a Qatari security officer. None of the Hamas top brass were killed.
It marked a new red line crossed by Israel: the first time it had openly admitted to an attack on the soil of a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member.
And in that, it attacked the GCC member that houses the regional headquarters of US Central Command, where more than 8,000 American personnel are stationed.
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All eyes are on how Doha will respond.
“In the short term Qatar will reach for the tools it knows best: diplomacy and law,” Andreas Krieg, an academic at King’s College London and an expert on Gulf security, told Middle East Eye.
“Doha is already preparing to push for international condemnation of Israel, whether at the UN Security Council or the General Assembly.”
Kristin Diwan, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, said that Doha would seek condemnation at other collective institutions too, including the Arab League and the 57-member Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
“The goal will be to amplify any division between the US and its Israeli partner over the attack and to press Israel for a ceasefire,” Diwan told MEE.
Qatar’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday that a legal team had been put together to prepare a response.
Swift military retaliation appears unlikely, Krieg noted.
“Qatar has no appetite for military escalation, nor the means. In the medium term, the focus will be on rethinking deterrence,” he said.
“Qatari military advisers were already debating how to guard against Iranian strikes; now they are openly considering how to deter Israel.”
‘Qatar has no appetite for military escalation, nor the means’
– Andreas Krieg, King’s College London
In June, Iran responded to American attacks on three of its nuclear sites by striking the US’s Al Udeid base in Qatar.
It was a highly choreographed attack, with Iran giving the US an indirect warning by notifying Qatar. Doha and Washington were able to prepare well in advance, using Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries to shoot down the ballistic missiles.
But on Tuesday, no such preparations were possible.
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s foreign minister, told media on Tuesday that while the Iranian attack showed the world how Doha could deal with a missile salvo, Israel was able to use weapons “that this radar did not detect”.
The foreign minister contradicted American claims that it gave Qatar pre-warning of the Israeli attack, stating that US information came “10 minutes after the attack”.
“The strike has broken something in Qatar’s sense of security,” said Krieg.
“We will likely see more investment in air defence, a greater push for a GCC security umbrella, and a diversification of strategic partnerships beyond the United States.”
‘Shared outrage’ in the Gulf
An inadvertent consequence of the attack is that Israel may well have brought Gulf countries – who have had major disagreements with each other over the years – closer together.
Mohamed bin Zayed, the president of the United Arab Emirates, was set to land in Doha for talks on Wednesday, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman set to follow a day later.
“There is shared outrage over the Israeli attack on Qatar,” said Diwan.
“The sense of vulnerability in having a fellow Gulf monarchy bombed outweighs the political differences. The break in the veneer of security impacts them all.”
The GCC could see Israeli attacks as an existential threat, superseding the well-documented rift which took place between Qatar and some of its neighbours in 2017.
Israel’s attack on Qatar eviscerates promise of US security umbrella for Gulf
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Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt launched a three-and-a-half-year boycott of Qatar at the time, accusing it of harbouring close ties with Iran and supporting terrorism – charges Doha strongly denied. The blockade was lifted in January 2021.
While some disagreements still persist despite the rift officially ending, direct Israeli attacks on Gulf soil marks a new challenge for the region.
“Statements of solidarity with Qatar have gone above and beyond the normal, especially in Bahrain and the UAE, which, until fairly recently, had difficult ties with Doha,” Kristian Ulrichsen, a Gulf expert and fellow at the Baker Institute, told MEE.
“The UAE’s description of the Israeli attack as ‘treacherous’ will not have gone unnoticed in the region.”
The Emirates has, in fact, faced a similar test. In 2010, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, a senior weapons procurement operative in Hamas’s armed wing, was assassinated in a hotel room in Dubai.
The killing has widely been attributed to Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, though Israel did not confirm or deny involvement at the time.
The violation of Emirati sovereignty sparked short-term tensions between the UAE and Israel, though it did not stop clandestine cooperation between the two countries.
Eventually, a decade later, the UAE and Bahrain would go on to normalise relations with Israel as part of the Donald Trump-brokered Abraham Accords.
Israel’s genocide in Gaza has brought about condemnation, but not a suspension or withdrawal of the accords from Abu Dhabi or Manama.
“But the attack on Qatar is a potentially significant red line given that it is an attack on the territory of a GCC state, which could be considered a collective attack on the Gulf states,” said Diwan, adding that it may increase pressure for a reassessment of normalisation.
“Gulf governments have begun to see Israel as a threat to the regional order equivalent to Iran. The problem is that the United States does not appear to be a solution to counter this threat.”
Diversification away from the US
The Gulf countries, and in particular Qatar, have long relied on the US as a major security and diplomatic partner.
But Washington’s failure to stop Israel from carrying out an attack in a country hosting thousands of American personnel is likely to prompt reflection.
“The credibility of the US defence and security umbrella was already in doubt after the [Houthi] attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019, and the Houthi strikes against Abu Dhabi in 2022,” said Ulrichsen.
“There has been a process of strategic and security diversification underway for some time.”
The diversification includes both Saudi Arabia and the UAE strengthening economic ties with China, as well as with Russia through the framework of the Opec+ group of oil producers.
‘There has been a process of strategic and security diversification underway for some time’
– Kristian Ulrichsen, analyst
Both countries have also softened aggressive stances against regional foes.
Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic relations with Iran in 2023, and began talks with the Houthis in Yemen around the same time.
The UAE has also opened channels with Iran, and stepped up coordination with Turkey following the end of the Gulf rift with Qatar.
Ulrichsen noted that while Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have sought diversification, Qatar has doubled down on its relationship with Washington.
In 2022, the Joe Biden administration granted Qatar the status of Major Non-Nato Ally – a recognition that neither Saudi Arabia or the UAE have.
That partnership is meant to guarantee Qatar preferential military and financial access to US equipment and services that are otherwise not available to non-Nato members.
Tuesday’s events throw a spanner into the reliability of such a pact.
“It will be instructive to see if this attack changes Doha’s calculations,” said Ulrichsen.
Diwan noted that while diversification has long been sought, America is still crucial.
“There is still no substitute for Centcom in Qatar, or American security guarantees for Saudi Arabia,” he said. “It is a real dilemma.”
