Our football betting expert and top tipster Jones Knows offers his insight on every Sky Bet Championship opening weekend match and shares his best bets.
Birmingham vs Ipswich, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports Football
What a way to start the Championship party. This is a cracker.
Roll the clock back 12 months and Kieran McKenna was the most sought-after manager in world football, with him seemingly having the pick of Chelsea and Manchester United.
Flavours of the month move on fast in football, though, and McKenna now finds himself back in the Championship, albeit with a position of strength considering this Ipswich team looks ready-made to win promotion.
McKenna boasts a 58.3 per cent win ratio in the EFL across 116 games with a +0.83 expected goals difference (expected goals for minus expected goals against). That kind of process will see the Tractor Boys go very close to promotion.
Friday 8th August 7:00pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Meanwhile, all the signs and words coming out of Ipswich this summer are that forward George Hirst is in the shape of his life. He has looked the part in pre-season too, scoring four goals in four matches for the Championship promotion favourites as he looks to fill the void left by Liam Delap.
He can score the opening goal of the Championship season at 17/2 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: George Hirst to score first (17/2 with Sky Bet)
Charlton vs Watford, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports+
Those who fancy Charlton to defy market expectations and avoid relegation this season will be putting a lot of weight on Nathan Jones when making their arguments.
When Jones gets his teeth into a club, the direction of travel is usually very positive. His jaws are locked in at Charlton now after negotiating them through a tricky period in League One and eventually winning promotion at Wembley.
I like them here for a home win. Looking at previous seasons, newly-promoted teams in the Championship have a solid record of starting the season full of momentum.
Of the last 30 promoted teams into the Championship, their record on the opening reads W10 D8 L12, including Portsmouth drawing at Leeds last season and Oxford beating Norwich. The 29/20 with Sky Bet on a home win looks the play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Coventry vs Hull, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports+
Coventry found Sunderland too dogged and too difficult to break down in the play-off semi-finals last season.
Frank Lampard’s tactical flexibility remains under scrutiny but there is no doubting that the Sky Blues have some of the most talented players in the Championship, most notably Jack Rudoni, who looks like he is staying with the club.
There isn’t a better goalscoring midfielder in the league when he’s fit and firing, and the 7/1 with Sky Bet for him to open the scoring does appeal.
Hull are unlikely to put up much resistance under their relatively unknown new boss Sergej Jakirovic.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Southampton vs Wrexham, Saturday 12.30pm, live on Sky Sports Football
Wrexham are a club that embraces noise – it’s certainly helped them to become who they are and has played a part in their success story. Yet, I think we should be treading very carefully about their prospects in the Championship this season following back-to-back promotions.
They are making signings – lots of signings – without really trimming down their promotion-winning squad. Josh Windass, Ryan Hardie, Danny Ward, Lewis O’Brien, Liberato Cacace, Conor Coady and Kieffer Moore are all Championship-ready additions on paper, but fitting them all in while keeping others happy is going to be a huge task for Phil Parkinson, who isn’t exactly proven at this level either.
Parkinson has yet to show he is able to adapt his methods when taking on the more technical challenge of the Championship.
From 141 games managed, he has a win ratio of just 18 per cent in the second tier. That, compared to 44 per cent in League One and 42 per cent in League Two, is a worry for the Welsh club. This looks like a banker home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Norwich vs Millwall, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Are Millwall the dark horses this season? Based on the 5/1 with Sky Bet for a top six finish, they have certainly caught my eye.
Alex Neil is a safe pair of hands in this league and based on the way his team finished last season, finishing just two points off the play-offs, he looks a good fit for Millwall. His teams are well organised, full of bite and play the percentages very shrewdly.
And what might just be key is their work this summer in the market, the likes of Massimo Luongo and Alfie Doughty are proven at this level and will fit into the Millwall way just fine. If they improve an already very competitive team at the level, it could be one where they become a real nuisance for the promotion favourites.
The 13/8 with Sky Bet in the draw no bet market, meaning stakes are refunded if the game is a draw, looks a sound investment.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Middlesbrough vs Swansea, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
A change in manager from Michael Carrick to Rob Edwards has got me worried for Middlesbrough in the next few months.
That transition in style from Carrick’s possession-heavy demands to Edwards’ desire for pressing and utilising width could be an awkward one – and there have been signs of that in pre-season, where they were winless across their six games.
This latest change in direction may take Edwards a couple of transfer windows to solve and rarely are you afforded such time in this relentless league.
This could be a great time for Swansea to head to the north-east with the 12/5 on offer for the away win looking very juicy.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Swansea to beat Middlesbrough (12/5 with Sky Bet)
Oxford vs Portsmouth, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Both of these clubs are in danger of suffering from a bit of second-season syndrome, where expectations rise too far after a season of survival following promotion. Achieving survival again should be the sole aim.
Three of the last six clubs in their second season since promotion to the Championship went on to suffer relegation and the average finishing position since 2013 of said clubs is just 16.6 with 11 of the last 17 teams finishing 15th or worse.
That probably explains why Oxford are second favourites for the drop at 5/2 and Pompey sixth favourites at 9/2. It’s hard to separate them on the opening day so the draw stands out at 23/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
QPR vs Preston, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Based on new boss Julien Stephan’s record in France, a fast start and an upsurge in results could be on the cards at Loftus Road.
In both his jobs at Rennes and Strasbourg, his reign has begun with lots of excitement and hope before taking a bit of a turn over the longer term due to the demands he puts on his playing squad.
In his first 10 games across two spells with Rennes and his stint at Strasbourg, from a 30-game sample size, he won 15 of those matches, losing just eight. In that period, his teams averaged 1.87 goals per game and conceded just 1.03.
A home fixture with Preston at Loftus Road looks like a fantastic opportunity for Stephan to showcase his ability to get a team playing with intent and get results quickly.
Paul Heckingbottom’s Preston won just one of their last 15 Championship games last season, where they almost sleepwalked into relegation. Home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: QPR to beat Preston (6/4 with Sky Bet)
Stoke vs Derby County, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Having John Eustace in your corner in the Championship is a huge advantage.
The former Blackburn boss has his feet firmly under the table now after steering the club to safety last season with a very strong run of results across the run-in. Derby lost just two of their last 11 Championship matches and conceded just 0.75 goals per game in their last 13 matches, with Eustace showing once again he knows how to organise a defence.
If Carlton Morris and Patrick Agyemang can add some much-needed firepower to proceedings, then Derby could strike an exciting balance. They can start the season by winning with a clean sheet at 4/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
West Brom vs Blackburn, Saturday 3pm, live on Sky Sports+
Val Ismael appears to have inserted some calm at Ewood Park but the backdrop of fan unrest due to the ownership is always lurking in the background, which is a worry for their prospects.
Ismael oversaw four wins in his last five games as Rovers flirted with the play-off picture, but it’s hard to see a repeat.
West Brom have Ryan Mason in the seat with the 34-year-old hoping his time working with Ange Postecoglou and Jose Mourinho gives him the managerial edge that is so crucial in this league.
Tottenham Hotspur assistant manager Ryan Mason before the Carabao Cup Semi-Final, second leg match at Anfield, Liverpool. Picture date: Thursday February 6, 2025.
Much like many of the opening day games, the draw stands out here at 12/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Sheffield United vs Bristol City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports Football
Saturday 9th August 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
Gerhard Struber is going to bring a more expansive and riskier style of football to Bristol City, which should, in turn, increase the attacking output of City’s forward players.
Anis Mehmeti has been to the fore for Struber in pre-season and looks to be exactly the type of player to thrive under the Austrian. With him entering the final year of his contract – always a motivation to perform for any player – he could be in for a fruitful campaign.
Mehmeti scored 12 goals last season despite only featuring sparingly in the final few months and his 0.4 goals per game ratio does hold up well. The 7/2 with Sky Bet for him to score looks a runner.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Anis Mehmeti to score (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Gerhard Struber has replaced Liam Manning at Bristol City
Leicester vs Sheffield Wednesday, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports Football
Sheffield Wednesday’s grim prospects are perfectly epitomised by Sky Bet’s odds. They are 1/4 for relegation, equating to an 80 per cent implied probability for the drop and you can get as big as 16/1 on them beating Leicester City.
It’s the biggest price a team will go off in the Championship since Oxford went to Leeds in December.
This proud old club is in crisis after a summer of unpaid wages, transfer embargoes and a partial stadium closure. They head to the King Power Stadium with a threadbare squad following a raft of exits and no incomings in recent weeks.
This could be a damage limitation job if things start badly with heads likely to drop very quickly such is the dire situation. Leicester with a -2.5 handicap start at 6/4 with Sky Bet could be the way in as things could become even more exasperating for the Wednesday fans.
