When Saudi Arabia arranged a $1.5bn arms deal with Sudan’s army in January, it had a condition: weapons would flow to the armed forces if General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan shifted away from Iranian drones, an official in the Gulf and a source briefed on the matter told Middle East Eye.
This diplomatic wheeling and dealing underscores how Gulf states like Saudi Arabia are discreetly trying to capitalise on Iran’s weakness, as Tehran copes with a potent mix of military setbacks against Israel and anger at home amid an economic crisis.
But some Gulf states are worried, analysts and western and Arab officials say.
They believe that if US President Donald Trump attacks Iran, he could spoil a new equilibrium that may allow them to obtain quiet concessions and revive nuclear negotiations without the risk of conflict.
“There is an advantage for the Gulf in a weak Iran that is not engulfed in chaos,” Joshua Yaphe, a senior fellow at the Center for the National Interest, told MEE.
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Of course, Gulf monarchies’ immediate worry is that an American attack provokes a furious response from the Islamic Republic that spills across their borders, or leads the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to consolidate power further.
“The last thing they want is a series of US strikes that leads to regime change, when the most likely outcome will be a soft coup by the IRGC, which could be a lot worse than clerical rule,” added Yaphe, who previously served as the lead Gulf analyst at the State Department’s intelligence agency.
Iran has been seriously battered by Israel and the US over the last two years. Still, it has proven it can go toe-to-toe with them, for example, by hitting Tel Aviv with missiles during a 12-day war with Israel in June, and living to fight another day after the US bombed its nuclear facilities.
In sum, the US and its Gulf partners agree Iran has been weakened, but they differ over how to capitalise on that weakness. For Saudi Arabia, it’s more of what it did in Sudan, experts say.
“The Gulf is benefiting from Iran’s weakness. They are filling the vacuum, but they want to do it in the most orderly and the least costly way possible,” Yasmine Farouk, director of the Gulf programme at the International Crisis Group, told MEE.
“The US and Israel see this weakness as a potential opportunity to strike the regime. Whereas some in the Gulf see an opportunity to extract concessions,” she added.
‘Trump had his Venezuela’
Trump raised the spectre of strikes on Iran during the government’s brutal crackdown on demonstrators earlier this month. Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar lobbied the US against attacking. The tensions have eased as protests waned.
After signs that the US was de-escalating, some Gulf capitals are concerned they have not dissuaded Trump from launching a new round of strikes, a western official, an Arab diplomat, and a Gulf source briefed on the matter told MEE.
After publication of this article, Trump said on Thursday evening that a “big force” is going toward Iran and he was watching the country “very closely”.
‘Trump had his Venezuela. What the Americans are being told is ‘this is our region”
– Gulf source
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is traveling to the Arabian Sea, according to tracking information.
“This dance is going to continue. The administration will toy with kinetic options and partners in the Gulf will push back,” the western official told MEE. “It’s hard to see a resolution until facts on the ground change in Iran.”
First and foremost, Gulf countries oppose US strikes because they fear they could be caught in the crossfire.
Countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar host US military bases. An American attack that comes at a time when the Islamic Republic faces internal unrest could provoke a voracious response that is more far-reaching and unpredictable than the choreographed June 2025 strike on al-Udeid air base in Qatar, after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The US is moving Patriot and Thaad missile defence systems to the region to address those concerns, The Wall Street Journal reported this week. But the Gulf source told MEE that the opposition to strikes, particularly in Saudi Arabia, extends beyond the tactical positioning of military hardware.
“First, Iran is no longer perceived to be a threat. Second, there is a real opportunity to negotiate with the Iranians because they are weak. Trump had his Venezuela. What the Americans are being told is, ‘This is our region. We can make a deal,’” the source said.
The Gulf, of course, is not a monolith.
What the UAE-Saudi rift means for Iran
While Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have taken the lead in trying to persuade Trump against carrying out a new round of strikes, the UAE’s position is murky, with mixed signals coming from experts and officials.
The Emirates’ ruling al-Nahyan family has a higher risk threshold than its Gulf neighbours and is wary of showing daylight with Israel, which is in favour of regime change in Tehran, the Arab diplomat and Gulf source told MEE.
However, others who have been briefed by officials in Abu Dhabi tell MEE that the UAE is opposed to military intervention in Iran.
‘The Gulf is benefiting from Iran’s weakness. They are filling the vacuum, but want to do it in the most orderly and least costly way possible’
– Yasmine Farouk, International Crisis Group
One indication that the UAE is more amenable to going along with strikes on Iran, the Gulf source told MEE, is the fact that Saudi Arabia has taken the lead in lobbying the US intensely against the move, unlike in June 2025.
“If this escalation had happened before the breakdown of ties between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the Saudis wouldn’t be as invested in trying to prevent strikes,” the Gulf source, who spoke with MEE on condition of anonymity, said.
“But Israel is for strikes, so Saudi Arabia sees the UAE is for strikes. Therefore, they oppose it even more,” the Gulf source added.
Ties between the UAE and Saudi Arabia are in a downward spiral.
Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia ousted the UAE and its allies from Yemen. Along with Egypt and Turkey, Saudi Arabia is also backing the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary backed by the UAE.
The fact that one of Riyadh’s main preoccupations right now is combating the UAE – and that it is opposed to military intervention in Iran – shows just how much the region has transformed.
In 2018, Saudi Arabia’s then-foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir called Iran “the world’s chief sponsor of terrorism”. At the time, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were allies engaged in a brutal war against Yemen’s Houthis, who have received arms, training and support from Tehran.
‘Reciprocity’
In March 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia restored diplomatic ties in a deal brokered by China.
They consolidated their rapprochement during Israel’s genocide on Gaza, which began after the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attacks. When Trump travelled to the Middle East in May, Riyadh whispered in his ear to end US attacks on the Houthis, MEE was the first to reveal.
Having lobbied Trump against strikes, Saudi Arabia now wants Tehran to “reciprocate”, Aziz Alghashian, a lecturer on security studies at Naif Arab University in Riyadh, told MEE. At the top of their list is Yemen, he said.
“Saudi Arabia wants to see a change of attitude with the Houthis, who have increased their hostility to the kingdom. Right now, they (Iran) need to express their displeasure with the Houthis,” he told MEE.
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Qatar is also stepping in to fill the vacuum left by Iran. It has emerged as a key financial backer of President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Syria, whose military had a spectacular offensive against Kurdish militias this week.
Qatar and Iran share the world’s largest natural gas field, and any instability in Iran could be bad for Doha’s energy business.
Both Oman and Qatar also believe the time is ripe to flex their mediator skills and push for new nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, analysts say. There are some signs that their message is getting through.
At the Davos Economic Forum this week, Steve Witkoff, who consults often with Gulf leaders, said: “Iran needs to change its ways…if they indicate that they are willing to do that, I think we can diplomatically settle this”.
That is the path the Gulf prefers.
