Turkey has been cautiously following the protests in Iran, worried about the possible instability they could cause in the region.
Ankara and Tehran have been regional rivals for decades, with their interests repeatedly clashing in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and beyond.
Yet, fears loom that a violent overthrow of the Iranian government could unravel the country of 90 million people, a multiethnic population with diverse views and aspirations.
“Despite the underlying tension and competition in Iran–Turkey relations, preserving Iran’s territorial integrity and stability is a priority for Turkey,” said Mustafa Caner, an analyst on Iran and the region affiliated with the SETA think tank.
This sentiment was clearly reflected in Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s televised remarks on Saturday.
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Fidan said that Ankara does not expect the Iranian government to collapse as a result of these demonstrations, describing them as smaller in scale than the 2022 protest movement, an assessment contested by Iranian analysts who believe these are the largest since at least 1999.
Fidan said Iran has been paying the price for its ambitious regional and global policies over the past 30 years, which have resulted in severe western economic sanctions.
‘Mossad doesn’t hide it; they are calling on the Iranian people to revolt against the regime’
– Hakan Fidan, Turkish foreign minister
He added that Iran has a young, vibrant and sophisticated population facing economic and everyday challenges.
The protests, he said, “sends a very strong message to the regime”.
“I’m sure the regime will get it,” he added.
Fidan also noted that he does not expect the outcome Israel desires – the toppling of the Iranian government – to occur as a result of the protests.
“It is also a fact that the protests are being manipulated by Iran’s rivals from abroad. Yes, that’s a reality. Mossad doesn’t hide it; they are calling on the Iranian people to revolt against the regime through their own internet and Twitter accounts,” he said.
Wary of chaos
Serhan Afacan, chairman of the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara, said that while Ankara finds the demands of the protesters, particularly those with economic grievances, legitimate and justified, it believes in recent days the demonstrations have been dominated by provocative acts like attacking mosques.
Afacan added that Ankara cannot take a position that Tehran might interpret as aligning with Israeli and US calls to topple the government, as it has not done so in the past.
‘Ankara is concerned about the destabilisation of Iran in general, not specifically the Islamic Republic regime, and the country’s potential descent into chaos’
– Serhan Afacan, Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara
“Personally, I observe that Ankara is concerned about the destabilisation of Iran in general, not specifically the Islamic Republic regime, and the country’s potential descent into chaos. It avoids actions that might pave the way for such an outcome,” he explained.
Afacan also said that Ankara is uncomfortable with Israel’s destabilising stance in the region.
During last year’s 12-day war between Iran and Israel, Turkey was concerned about a possible refugee influx from Iran.
It increased security measures along the border and informally signalled that it would not be as welcoming as during the Syrian civil war, which led to Ankara hosting 4–5 million Syrian refugees.
“The costs that instability in Iran could impose on Turkiye go beyond border security issues such as migration or drug trafficking,” Caner added.
Iran has a Kurdish population of around eight million living near the Turkish border.
Although Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) entered a peace process in 2024, underlying tensions persist in the region, particularly in Syria.
The Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), the PKK’s Iranian arm, remains active, and Ankara often accuses Tehran of turning a blind eye to Kurdish militant activity along the Iraqi-Iranian border.
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“In order to ensure that Turkiye’s PKK-focused operations in Syria and Iraq are not disrupted, it is necessary to prevent elements such as the PJAK, which seek to exploit turmoil in Iran and expand their influence, from gaining strength,” Caner said.
He noted that the protests are occurring at a time when Ankara faces a deadlock in Syria in negotiations over integrating Kurdish armed groups into the Damascus government.
“Indeed, the rapid escalation of the protests into violence in areas populated by Kurdish, Baluch and Arab minorities in Iran, along with the organised activity observed on the ground, indicates that Turkiye’s concerns on this matter are not unfounded,” he added.
Turkey believes the way forward for the Iranian government is to seek a reset with the West.
“We support an agreement with Iran, primarily involving key actors, especially the Americans, that can result in a win-win situation for both sides, because the region’s stability depends on it,” Fidan said.
He added that Iran now needs to enter into “very genuine reconciliation and cooperation” with its regional neighbours.
“Iran really needs to make a genuine effort in this regard. We need to be able to reach a common ground where everyone’s truths converge,” he said.
Fidan added that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could play a role in helping Iran recalibrate its ties with the region.
