Welcome to another episode of regime change by the USA. An update: Donald Trump tweeted that Nicolas Maduro has been seized by US special forces and is being moved out of the country. However, watch the Cubans. They will have a role to play.
The peace president had started major military operations against Venezuela, in particular in and around the Venezuelan capital of Caracas. The military force being used does not seem requisite for a full-scale invasion of the country, but does seem more extensive than the military force used previously. Crucially, there are reports (and I stress these are just reports) of the US inserting some ground forces into the action in Caracas.
Looking at things from this early and incomplete perspective, it seems more than likely that the Trump administration is attempting regime change in Venezuela. You will find no tears being shed by me for the Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. He is a brutal, murderous thug who has stolen billions and wrecked a country that should be one of the richest in South America.
Venezuela, if you did not know, has the world’s largest proven oil reserves – and has been one of the world’s largest oil producers for almost a century. It has mostly wasted that money, and corrupt, brutal leaders like Maduro are a key reason for that.
Getting rid of Maduro, however, might be the easy part. A thug dictator who has gained loyalty only through money is in a precarious state if his rule is threatened and the income taps are turned off. The real challenge, and why I am very worried, is that its a question of who/what replaces him. The USA will cloak its efforts, I am sure, in cries of Venezuelan “freedom,” but the Trump administration itself is anti-freedom.
To actually replace Maduro with someone better will require the active participation of the Venezuelan people in this action and, moreover, it will require some serious military threats against Cuba (you might not have seen that one coming).
Arguably the real military power behind the throne in Venezuela today is the tens of thousands of Cuban operatives in the country. These range from bodyguards protecting Maduro (a sign he cannot trust his own people) to intelligence operatives to “sports advisers” to ground forces, which are not called as such. Estimates of the total number of Cuban operatives range as high as 30,000.
One of the reasons Maduro had been unable to flee is that the Cubans, reportedly, were threatening to kill him if he did. Cuba needs Venezuelan oil to live, otherwise its regime could fail. The Cuban economy is a mess and the island has suffered regularly from power outages. Venezuelan fuel is keeping it going. The slowdown already in oil deliveries because of the US attacks over the last few months has been felt seriously in Cuba.
If those Cuban forces remain in Venezuela, they will almost certainly try and play a role in trying to replace Maduro with another Maduro – which is why the US cannot hope to succeed unless it gets the Cubans out. And that is just one of the major hurdles the US will face.
Regime change has been shown to be arguably the most difficult thing for an outside power to do, even with the massive insertion of military force (think Afghanistan). It will take more than dropping a few bombs. The situation in Iran speaks to that.
So, as a helpful primer, here is a short description of what we know, and the questions we need to ask.
What do we ‘know’?
What do we know has happened? And I use the word “know” with reluctance. It might be better to say what is credibly being reported as having happened. First, the US has confirmed that a military operation is underway in Venezuela. This report from The Wall Street Journal, in only 8 minutes old as I write.
So far the US seems to be relying mostly on air strikes in the operation. There have been credible reports of the strikes in and around Caracas and some oil facilities. The New York Times is claiming, for instance, that strikes have been recorded at La Carlota Airport and the military base at Fuerte Tiuna – which would make sense if they are trying to paralyze the Venezuelan government.
There are also reports, of US helicopters capable of carrying small numbers of troops (special forces) in the skies over Caracas. If this is supposed to be a regime change operation to get rid of Maduro now, one would think that this would be happening.
And that is about it for credible reports for now.
Three things to which you should pay attention
First is the Venezuelan military. If the US administration were competent, one would hope that it would have established links with anti-Maduro forces in the Venezuelan military. Assuming the US keeps its ground forces very small in number, the Venezuelan military will be key to establishing some form of stability in the short term. It would also have represented one of the best ways to get to Maduro if the air strikes/special forces did not get him. So, look for cracks there.
Second is the US-Cuban relationship. The US will need to get the Cubans out of Venezuela (or at least neutered) for regime change to have a chance of success. That will almost certainly require major threats, even the first stages of an embargo, on Cuba. If the US does nothing about Cuban forces in Venezuela, this will very likely go pear shaped quickly.
Third: other states in the region. The US has been acting like a big, bad bully in the region, but there is a very good chance that other South American forces (even just police) will be needed to help stabilize the situation in Venezuela if Maduro is outed. The US would struggle mightily to occupy Venezuela (Lord, I hope they do not try) but South American states could provide support. Watch how they react to what is happening.
Getting rid of Maduro could be the easiest part
If this military operation is for real, getting rid of Maduro might be the easiest part of it. He will not be mourned by the Venezuelan people and already his ability to secure capital was under threat. I’m sure everyone around has been calculating whether now is the moment to cut and run – or even turn him over.
However its what comes after that will determine this. If the Venezuelan people are allowed to establish a free and democratic country, with control of their own natural resources, this will be a good thing.
However, very few of the outside actors seem to have prioritized this. The USA has made a claim to Venezuelan oil itself, and the Trump administration prefers dictators/autocrats to democrats. The Cubans will also not want a democratic Venezuela in charge of its own destiny and we can assume that some members of the Venezuelan security forces will prefer another strong-man to keep control and spread around the corrupt takings.
Sorry if I sound cynical.
So, no tears for Maduro, but do not assume that what comes after will be better or that this will be over soon. And watch the Cubans.
By the way, the big story overhanging the US regime change attack in Venezuela is that US government is deadly serious in its stated plans to dominate and control the western hemisphere. Take the threats against Greenland very seriously indeed.
Phillips P. O’Brien is professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrew. This article was originally published here, on his Substack, Phillips’s Newsletter. It is republished with kind permission.
