Arsenal vs Chelsea is the most played fixture in WSL history. When these two titans of the women’s game clash it is always exciting. Often it concerns matters at the top end, usually first vs second. But not on this occasion.
The Gunners find themselves way down in fifth ahead of Saturday’s meeting, live on Sky Sports, two points better off than at the same stage last season but nonetheless behind the pace.
The chance to address that shortfall against the league leaders will be fundamental to any future title challenge, if indeed a five-point deficit is even recoverable.
So, where will Saturday’s game be won and lost?
Saturday 8th November 11:30am
Kick off 12:00pm
Stay true to style
Arsenal are the most possession-based team of any in the league. It is a title they have stripped Manchester City of, since Gareth Taylor took his pass-centric style to Liverpool in the summer.
Renee Slegers’ side are the only team to average over 60 per cent possession this season. Under Sonia Bompastor, Chelsea are also moving towards a structure that favours possessing the ball to establish control but the transition has been, thus far, incremental. Arsenal have always played this way, only now the in-possession phase is slightly more elevated at Slegers’ behest.
Arsenal top every passing metric. They retain the best accuracy, complete the most passes and play the highest number of successful balls into the final third. If the Gunners get into rhythm via their central technicians – Kim Little and Mariona Caldentey – they are very difficult to stop. No team does pass and move like it. Staying true to type surely holds the best chance of success here.
Chelsea tend to hit via the channels. It is a more direct approach but can be equally effective. They average 24 crosses per 90, more than any other side, and can switch the play from left to right and back again with excellent precision. Arsenal’s attack-minded full-backs will need to balance risk with reward to account for Chelsea’s functionality out wide, particularly down the right.
Track the midfield ace
Considering Arsenal spend so much time with the ball, it might be surprising to some that Little has amassed more possession wins (52) than any other player this term. Erin Cuthbert ranks second with 48. As has often been the case down the years, the efficacy of each side’s midfield controller has the power to swing this game one way or the other.
Chelsea’s Erin Cuthbert has redefined her midfield role this season
Cuthbert is having a stellar season in a higher role. It is a deliberate move by Bompastor to put the Scotland international in positions to affect the offensive half, with Keira Walsh trusted to play as a single axis. It took Cuthbert 86 seconds to seize a loose pass and strike at goal in Chelsea’s latest 2-0 win over London City Lionesses, only denied by a goal-line clearance. She should have scored.
The Chelsea midfielder is having much more say in the opposition half and final third than before
The shift is working, though. Cuthbert has created 13 chances this season, only Arsenal’s Caldentey and London City’s Kosovare Asllani (21 each) have generated more. She has landed 20 efforts at goal, only surpassed by Man City striker Khadija Shaw. Her creative output eclipses most of the league’s forwards currently. Arsenal need a combative plan to limit her spaces.
Give full-backs freedom
This is a fixture that should be dominated by flying full-backs. Both side’s boast exceptional talent in this department, each with match-winning potential.
In fact, it almost feels reductive to use the term full-back, given the profile of players in question. Arsenal’s most used pairing – Katie McCabe and Emily Fox – are among the most progressive, constantly arriving in the final third with overlapping and underlapping runs. They often set the tone for Arsenal’s press. Ellie Carpenter operates much in the same way for Chelsea.
What tends to happen with such an aggressive strategy, though, is gaps are left in behind. Arsenal play with a flat back four while Chelsea have moved to a wing-back system which allows for greater flexibility if wide players are caught upfield. The Blues are conceding fewer goals than ever before and have added greater depth to their attacking phase. Neither development is good news for Arsenal.
Carpenter scored her first goal since arriving at Stamford Bridge last weekend and no doubt the clever positioning of Lucy Bronze, who played as part of a structured back three for the first time, offered the reassurance Carpenter needed to roam forwards. The assist came from opposite wing-back Sandy Baltimore. These are luxury players in their own right but cannot be in two places at once.
Sniffing moments to exploit vacated spaces with good timing will be key.
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Both wing-backs combined to give Chelsea the lead against London City Lionesses
Don’t get caught by fast start
Arsenal and Chelsea can jointly brag a total of eight first-half goals scored, but the latter have found the net in the first 15 minutes of games six times – double that of any other. Chelsea come out the blocks firing and once they go ahead, they rarely surrender a lead.
The Gunners cannot afford to let that happen at home. They must try to weaponise the Emirates crowd to prevent their visitors gaining any early momentum. Then it is about holding nerve for long enough to draw Chelsea out.
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Alessia Russo and Stina Blackstenius were both on the scoresheet as Arsenal beat Leicester 4-1 last weekend
A combination of Alessia Russo and Stina Blackstenius can do this. Arsenal are unbeaten in all eight league games the pair have started together, with a team average of 2.8 goals per game. Trust them to stretch Chelsea and play off the gaps that appear. Caldentey’s creativity can then come to life. Olivia Smith is handy in pockets too.
And if that does not work, Slegers has depth to fall back on. Arsenal’s record of goals by subs (four) and goals past the 75+ mark (six) is the best in the division. Top end performance remains a huge asset.
Be defensively smart
All the best-laid plans of course rely on good in-game management too. Slegers has proved herself to be a shrewd operator in a short space of time, but her side are leaking too many goals to call themselves genuine title contenders right now. Recovering points from losing positions – six this season – must be as frustrating as it is pleasing.
Defences win you leagues. Chelsea have conceded three times this season with an xGa performance of +4.5. Arsenal, meanwhile, have shipped seven with an xGa performance of -0.8. It is a pattern they must break to stand any chance of halting Chelsea’s unbeaten run.
Bompastor will not be bested lightly. Slegers needs an air-tight tactical plan that focuses on all Arsenal do well – and, perhaps just as importantly, a few things they do not.
Watch Arsenal vs Chelsea live on Sky Sports Main Event from 11.30am on Saturday; kick-off 12pm.
