U.S. Treasury yields moved lower on Monday as investors look ahead to several economic releases this week including a key jobs report.
The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by more than 4 basis points to 4.145%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was lower by 2 basis points at 3.627%. The 30-year Treasury yield slid more than 4 basis points to 4.718%.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
The highlight of the week will be the nonfarm payrolls for September, set to be released on Friday morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Economists expect Friday’s jobs report to show 59,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.3%, per consensus estimates from FactSet. A negative reading hasn’t been ruled out by economists.
The report is expected to influence the path of monetary policy, with traders pricing in two more interest rate cuts for the rest of 2025, in line with what the central bank said in its last meeting.
“If you saw jobs actually look pretty strong, I think the market might say, ‘Oh no, where are my rate cuts?'” Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower Investments said. “And then if you saw jobs collapse, you would say, ‘Oh no, recession.'”
“I think jobs feels like the pendulum factor when we think about monetary policy,” Norton added.
The release of the jobs report is dependent on whether a government shutdown can be averted before September 30, as Democrats and Republicans remain divided on the federal funding bill.
Investors are also awaiting other economic data prints including the JOLTS job openings on Tuesday and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday.
— Sarah Min contributed to this report
