Israel’s attack on Qatar risks unwinding the decades-old foundation of US power in the energy-rich Gulf: its role as a reliable security guarantor.
As wars raged in poorer neighbouring countries like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, rich Gulf states could focus on building glitzy skyscrapers and hosting sporting events thanks to a constellation of US military bases and a steady stream of business deals greasing the wheels of diplomacy.
The Gulf had to occasionally deal with missile and drone strikes in the region from rebels in Yemen, but the US would never lean on subterfuge to aid attacks, especially from another state.
In fact, the US has tried to align Israel and the Arab Gulf against what it calls Iranian expansionism.
Not anymore.
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Middle East Eye reported earlier that the Trump administration gave its approval to the Israeli attack on Doha targeting Hamas political officials who were gathered to discuss the latest US ceasefire proposal for Gaza.
Israel killed at least six people – including a member of Qatar’s security forces – but missed its main targets, Hamas’s senior political officials. The attack failed because Israel bombed a building close to where senior Hamas officials were meeting, but not the exact location. The true meeting point was disguised for security measures, a source told MEE.
‘This could potentially have profound implications for how regional states view US security guarantees’
– Ted Singer, former US official
Israeli media has reported that fighter jets were used in the attack. Jordan said that Israel did not use its airspace. Israel used Syrian and Iraqi airspace when it attacked Iran earlier this summer.
While Iran has long been at odds with the US, Qatar is a major non-Nato US ally.
An American military base sits roughly 30 kilometres from the house bombed by Israel, which shares the same neighbourhood as the US ambassador’s residence.
Some US officials told MEE that the US operations centre in Doha, with eyes on radar, went silent during the attack.
The US is now struggling to square its acquiescence to Israel’s unprecedented escalation and its commitment to Qatari sovereignty.
US President Donald Trump is in open contradiction with Qatar’s emir, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, over when the US informed Doha about the Israeli attack.
Qatar has been one of the main mediators for ceasefire talks in Gaza. Doha agreed to host Hamas’s political leadership after it left Syria, per a 2011 request from former US President Barack Obama.
By not confronting Israel’s attack in a country where it has overwhelming air defence systems, the Trump administration has signalled it will not stand in the way of an Israel bent on dominating the Middle East from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf, experts say.
“This could potentially have profound implications for how regional states view US security guarantees,” Ted Singer, former head of Middle East operations for the US Central Intelligence Agency, told MEE.
Qatar, like other Gulf states, relies on a mix of military muscle and its deep pockets to stay on the US’s good side for security.
‘Changing the formula’
US soldiers operate air defence systems in Qatar. The Gulf state is home to al-Udeid, the biggest US military installation in the Middle East. Qatar has also pledged to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the US economy, including about $100bn in Boeing jets in May.
“If there were any fears about Israel’s destabilising ambitions, they have just been tripled. No one is spared,” Merissa Khurma, a nonresident fellow at the Baker Institute, told MEE.
‘If there were any fears about Israel’s destabilising ambitions they have just been tripled. No one is spared’
– Merissa Khurma, Baker Institute
“Qatar and other countries in the Levant and Gulf do a lot to advance US interests and, in return, expect security guarantees. This attack is going to shake their confidence in the entire formula,” she added. “Is it worth investing these billions of dollars in the US?”
The Gulf states were already moving away from Israel before the attack on Qatar, unnerved by its growing belligerence, Arab diplomats told MEE.
In the aftermath of the Hamas-led 7 October 2023 attacks, Israel seized a swath of southern Lebanon and Syria. It has continued to push for the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, rattling neighbours Egypt and Jordan.
Saudi Arabia shut down the Trump administration’s attempts to push it into a normalisation deal with Israel.
US efforts to foster closer military cooperation between Israel and the Arab Gulf have also failed. Riyadh refused to help resupply Israel with missile interceptors during its conflict with Iran and lobbied the US against Israel dictating where Syria deployed its military.
Even the UAE – the Arab state closest to Israel – has signalled frustration, warning about a “red line” over Israeli government plans to annex the occupied West Bank.
In a paper that circulated widely among diplomats in the region and the US, Emirati analyst Mohammed Baharoon warned Israel was becoming “[a] Goliath” bent on “regional hegemony”.
Patrick Theros, a former US ambassador to Qatar, told MEE that Tuesday’s strike backfired on Netanyahu and is likely to push the Gulf states to Iran and China.
“China is going to be all over this,” Theros said. “And Saudi Arabia’s outreach to Iran will accelerate.”
Prime Minister of Qatar Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani on Tuesday said that the Israeli strikes on Doha can only be interpreted as “state terrorism”. He also disputed the initial US version of events that Qatar had been notified, which, late on Tuesday, Donald Trump confirmed on Truth Social, saying that it was “unfortunately” too late to stop the attack.
Current and former US and Arab officials say that now that Israel has shown its willingness to target the rich Gulf, all eyes will likely go to Turkey.
Hamas political officials are known to travel between Qatar and Turkey. The Nato member state could invoke Article 5, a collective defence principle, if it is attacked.
Egypt also had a Hamas office before 7 October 2023 and has hosted Hamas officials amid ceasefire talks.
