Egypt has been sidelined in the collapsing Gaza ceasefire negotiations, with Cairo fearing that a major Israeli assault on the enclave could force Palestinians to breach the Sinai border and trigger chaos, senior Egyptian intelligence sources told Middle East Eye.
Correspondence between Egypt and Israel has been completely cut off, with no progress in talks to secure a truce in Gaza, one senior intelligence official said.
Negotiations are currently ongoing between Israel and the US, while Qatar has a minimal role as a mediator, with no concrete results on the horizon.
“Repeated Egyptian intelligence missions to Israel recently returned home empty-handed. The last delegation received no clear or positive responses, only hollow promises to reply to Washington’s latest peace proposal,” the source told MEE.
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to invade, destroy and occupy Gaza.”
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Hamas this week accepted the latest ceasefire proposal, but Israel has rejected it – despite reportedly signing off on it in the first place.
Some Israeli allies have attempted to lay the blame for the impasse on Hamas’ recent successful attacks on soldiers. However, Egyptian sources say these were not a major factor.
‘For Netanyahu, success in taking over Gaza is a matter of dignity to restore his prestige – even if it means sacrificing the hostages. That’s why Israel has ignored Washington’s proposal’
– Egyptian intelligence source
“Even before the Hamas operations, it was clear from the latest visits of Egyptian security delegations that the Israeli side was never serious about pursuing a ceasefire or dealing with the issue with the gravity it deserves,” the source said.
Egyptian and Qatari intelligence officials have repeatedly pressed the US to support a truce, allow humanitarian aid into Gaza and secure the release of captives held by Hamas.
“But there has been no response, as Washington has given its full blessing to every Israeli move,” the source said.
Nevertheless, the source said Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has instructed General Intelligence Service chief Hassan Rashad and other officials negotiating the Gaza ceasefire “to continue contacts with all regional and international parties to secure a truce”.
MEE revealed last month that Egypt has for months been training Palestinians from the occupied West Bank to take over security in Gaza if a ceasefire is reached.
A symbolic deadline
Another high-level intelligence source, meanwhile, revealed to MEE that Israeli leaders are considering a symbolic deadline: 7 October, marking the two-year anniversary of the war.
On that date, they are planning to raise the Israeli flag over Gaza City and declare it fully occupied.
“For Netanyahu, success in taking over Gaza is a matter of dignity to restore his prestige – even if it means sacrificing the hostages. That’s why Israel has ignored Washington’s ceasefire proposal, which Hamas has already agreed to,” the second official told MEE.
Though Israel says it is pursuing the war to free the remaining captives taken by Hamas on 7 October 2023, senior ministers insist they are not a priority, while military leaders warn that only a ceasefire deal will secure their release.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has vowed to fully and indefinitely occupy Gaza City.
Egyptian intelligence agencies now predict that Washington will treat the Israeli captives as collateral damage, as the Israeli government has.
“We expect a devastating escalation, brutal street battles and suicide attacks by Hamas that could test the occupation army’s capacity to handle resistance – or force it back to the negotiating table if losses mount,” the second source said.
Egypt was the first Arab country to normalise relations with Israel. And despite widespread public sympathy for the Palestinian cause, Egypt and Israel have maintained strong ties since signing their US-sponsored peace treaty in 1979.
Under the treaty, the Sinai Peninsula was divided into zones with strict limits on the deployment of troops and heavy weaponry. Over the years, exceptions have been negotiated, particularly after Egypt’s 2013 coup, when the Egyptian military increased its presence in northern Sinai to combat an insurgency.
But the genocide has pushed bilateral relations to one of their lowest points in decades. Cairo sees the Israeli war on Gaza as a threat to border stability, a blow to its diplomatic efforts and a potential risk to the durability of the peace treaty.
A key point of contention between Egypt and Israel is the Israeli control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow strip along the Sinai-Gaza border that it seized in May 2024.
While Egypt argues the move violates the treaty, Israel says it is a necessary buffer to prevent arms smuggling.
The Israeli takeover of the border area has also fully enforced the siege on Gaza, where famine has been declared after months of forced starvation.
Displacement threat persists
Egypt-Israel ties have become even more strained recently as Israeli and American officials promote the idea of expelling Palestinians from Gaza into Sinai – a concept that is anathema to Cairo.
“The Israeli army even considered strikes along the border fence with Egypt to partially demolish it and push Palestinians from Gaza into Egyptian Rafah border crossing against Cairo’s will,” the second intelligence source said.
“The Egyptian armed forces strongly oppose the idea of relocating Palestinians to Egypt. Cairo has made it clear that any military strike on its border would trigger a direct response and might involve the Egyptian army in a war with Israel.”
On 19 August, MEE revealed that Egypt had deployed around 40,000 forces along the Egyptian border with Gaza to hinder the possible passage of Palestinians into Sinai.
‘The gas deal is Israel’s largest ever with Egypt; it’s not something Netanyahu would lightly jeopardise’
– Security analyst
In what appears to be an indirect response to Egypt’s attempt to secure its border, recent unconfirmed reports in the Israeli media suggest that Israel has considered freezing its $35bn natural gas deal with Egypt.
According to the reports, Israel would cite “violations” of the peace treaty linked to Egypt’s deployment of extra troops in Sinai. Neither government has commented publicly on the claims.
A security analyst, who asked to be unnamed for security reasons, suggested to MEE that the reports are less about energy policy than political leverage.
“The gas deal is Israel’s largest ever with Egypt; it’s not something Netanyahu would lightly jeopardise,” the analyst said.
“But by hinting at freezing it, he is sending a signal: accept a mass influx of Palestinians into North Sinai after a full invasion of Gaza or pay the price economically,” the analyst added.
“It’s about coercion, not commerce. Netanyahu knows Egypt is already dealing with an energy shortfall. Threatening to block gas supplies aims to force Cairo into decisions it has so far turned down.”
