Foreign investors were intrigued when Turkey, last year, applied to become the first Nato country to join the Brics economic bloc.
Despite President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s years of public statements hinting that Ankara was considering joining Brics, few believed Turkey would actually take concrete steps toward membership.
Brics – an acronym of its original members Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – is seen by some commentators as poised to dominate the global economy in the coming decades.
Often viewed as an alternative to the G7, which is led primarily by western nations, Brics represents a significant shift in global power dynamics, and until now, has not included any Nato members.
One year after Ankara’s application, Turkey’s prospects for full Brics membership have lost momentum and are likely dead for the foreseeable future.
There were no encouraging signs from the start.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, for example, said last June that Brics was not interested in further expansion after adding five new nations in 2024: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Instead, Lavrov said Turkey would be offered a special status called “partner country”, along with 13 others.
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Turkish officials, even those with reservations about Brics, were not receptive to the idea of partner status, as it reminded them of Turkey’s bid to join the European Union.
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Several EU leaders in the past tried to persuade Turkey to accept a “special partnership” with Brussels instead of full EU membership.
Ankara has yet to announce its decision regarding the Brics proposal. Erdogan skipped the Brics summit in Brazil last weekend, sending Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in his place.
While 10 other countries, including Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Cuba, joined as partner countries, Turkey kept its silence on the issue.
One side issue could also be US President Donald Trump assuming his second term in January. Last month, Trump made it clear he has no love for Brics and said he would impose 100 percent tariffs if the group attempted to create a new Brics currency.
On Monday, he said the US would impose an additional 10 percent tariff on any countries aligning themselves with the “anti-American policies” of the Brics. Those statements likely concerned Turkish officials who want to maintain the good rapport between Erdogan and Trump.
Adding insult to injury, Indonesia was admitted as a full Brics member in January, despite Lavrov’s earlier statements that expansion to integrate new members would be paused. The Brics secretariat explained that Indonesia’s membership was decided in 2023 but was delayed until after its presidential election last year, so it was not a new decision.
Although no Turkish officials would say so publicly, sources familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye that China and India had reservations about Turkey’s membership last year, effectively blocking Ankara’s path to full Brics membership.
“Turkey is Nato,” a Brazilian diplomat told MEE in December. “Several countries have concerns about how that would work with the bloc.”
The diplomat said India was the chief opponent of Turkey’s participation.
Tensions with India
In September, a western diplomat told MEE that Turkey may have been making soft moves to address India’s concerns over the Kashmir issue. The diplomat noted that Erdogan did not comment on Kashmir during the UN General Assembly meetings in September, unlike in previous years.
An Indian diplomat, however, told MEE that Erdogan’s silence was not a meaningful gesture, as Turkey had signed an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation report in August that assessed the situation in Indian-controlled Kashmir.
‘Turkey is Nato. Several countries have concerns about how that would work with the bloc’
– Brazilian diplomat
In its official statements, India did not directly comment on Turkey’s membership but reminded the public that Brics admits new members only by unanimous decision.
Matters deteriorated further this year. The issue came to a complete standstill after the India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir was reignited by an attack in April that killed 27 Indian tourists. As India blamed Pakistan and launched a military response, Turkey soon found itself drawn into the conflict.
Indian media, citing sources, repeatedly accused Ankara of supplying drones, weapons, and ammunition to Pakistan during the latest wave of conflict. Some reports even alleged that two Turkish military operatives were killed by Indian forces during Operation Sindoor, and that Turkey provided Pakistan with over 350 drones.
“Turkish advisors helped Pakistani army officials coordinate drone attacks in India after Operation Sindoor,” they claimed.
Following the US-brokered ceasefire in May, Indian politicians began campaigns against Turkey for its supposed military aid to Pakistan. First, Indian authorities withheld security clearance for Celebi Airport Services India, a unit of Turkey’s Celebi that operates ground handling services at nine Indian airports, including Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru.
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Then, IndiGo Airlines announced it would terminate its leasing agreement with Turkish Airlines by 31 August after pressure from India’s aviation regulator.
As Indian citizens launched boycotts against Turkey, including tourism, Air India CEO Campbell Wilson said the airline would look for alternative maintenance and repair providers to replace Turkish Technic.
In June, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Cyprus and met with President Nikos Christodoulides, a move widely seen as a signal to Turkey that New Delhi was deepening ties with countries that have disputes with Ankara.
In another sign of India’s shifting stance, the Indian military linked Turkey to Pakistan during the latest escalation over Kashmir, dashing any hopes that India might support Ankara’s bid to join Brics.
India’s Deputy Chief of Army Staff Lt Gen Rahul R Singh said on Friday that Turkey was a component of Pakistan’s strategy against India.
“Turkey also played an important role by providing the type of support it did; they supplied Bayraktar and numerous other drones,” he said.
