The January transfer window opens this Thursday, and with it comes a monthlong midseason dash for teams up and down the league table. For elite teams, it’s a chance to reinforce in the push for a trophy — or multiple. For teams looking to escape relegation, it’s an opportunity to bring in the kinds of players who can finish the job.
But it’s not just about the movement of players between clubs; those stars approaching the end of their contracts, either hitting free agency in the summer of 2026 or 2027, require attention from teams keen to extend them to new terms before they are persuaded to join elsewhere.
With some big teams in very different situations heading into the winter window, Mark Ogden and Gab Marcotti have dusted off their sporting director hats and Keep or Dump concept to look at the basic decisions these clubs need to make on all fronts, from acquisitions and exits to contract renewals.
– O’Hanlon: How much is each position in soccer worth?
– Ian Darke’s Best PL XI of the season so far
– Hamilton: Why so many young PL players are going overseas
– League position on Dec. 29: Sixth, 29 points (Last year: 15th, 42 points)
– Realistic goal for 2025-26: Champions League qualification and performance improvements
1. Assess the team’s growth under Ruben Amorim and whether you want to make a change
Marcotti: He’s under contract until June 2027, but clubs generally don’t keep coaches with expiring deals so really they’re going to have to decide whether to extend him. And they’ll probably want to do it by March to give themselves the best possible chance of finding a worthy successor.
Ogden: I don’t think Amorim’s long-term future can be addressed right now, but I certainly think it’s fair to suggest that he is on notice to show significant progress by the end of the season. If he achieves a top-six finish, that should be enough to keep his job safe, but if United miss out on Europe again, then allowing Amorim to see out his contract would feel like a wasted year for the club.
2. Let’s move next to more imminent free agents. Casemiro is out of contract in June. What do you do with him?
Marcotti: He’s 34 in February and he’s likely thinking about the World Cup, so there’s no real rush to act here. Wait and see on what you decide with Amorim.
You’re not going to rebuild your entire midfield in one summer. He’s been better this season — if he’s happy to stay as a squad player or mentor, keep him around.
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Ogden: The deal here is that Casemiro would have to take a huge drop in wages if he’s to have any hope of a new short-term contract in Manchester. I think there is value in United exploring that because his experience can be useful, but I suspect he will receive a better offer from Saudi Arabia or even a decent contract from a club back in Brazil.
Instead of figuring out Casemiro’s fit, United’s priority has to be finding two younger midfielders for the long term.
3. Harry Maguire is also out of contract in June. What’s your move?
Marcotti: Sure, he’s been a loyal servant and everything, but whether Amorim stays or goes, you don’t need a 33-year-old backup central defender with an iffy injury record. Move on. Let him leave.
Ogden: If you asked me this a year ago, I’d have said move him on. But his recent injury-enforced absence has highlighted how important he has become in Amorim’s system, and his experience has been a huge loss. Offer him a 12-month extension so he can help with this team’s next iteration.
4. Now onto those core players who are in need of extensions or new clubs, starting with Bruno Fernandes, who has 18 months left on his contract. Where does he fit in?
Marcotti: It depends on the manager to some degree, but more realistically there’s nothing to do here beyond waiting. Fernandes has spoken out about how he felt hurt that the club tried to shift him in the past. And he’s enough of a grownup to know that he can’t expect a new deal when he’ll be on the verge of his 33rd birthday when this one expires. He has to play out of position in Amorim’s system because he can pass better than anybody else, but really he should be operating closer to goal, and he knows that.
I think he realizes he’ll be phased out no matter who is in charge, and much will depend on whether he accepts a different role.
1:30
Did Man United look better without Fernandes in win vs. Newcastle?
Mark Ogden reacts to Manchester United’s 1-0 win vs. Newcastle in the Premier League.
Ogden: Amorim foolishly said Fernandes was “irreplaceable” last week, following the injury that looks set to keep him out for around a month. There’s no question Bruno is a great player — and, right now, United’s best — but replacing him is just a question of deploying Mason Mount of Matheus Cunha in the No. 10 role. As for plugging a gap left by Bruno further back in midfield, that’s easy, because he can’t play that role to any great satisfaction.
United can live without Bruno Fernandes, so maybe it is time they accepted that, offloaded him and built a team rather than allowed themselves to build it around one player.
5. Lisandro Martínez is also at the 18-month mark. Does he have a future at United?
Marcotti: He has started 28 league games in 2½ years. It’s impossible to judge, frankly. Maybe you can find a home for him after the World Cup, but he’s not anyone to rely on right now, certainly not as a starter.
Ogden: This is a tricky one because his fitness record has been poor, and he’s also a liability when fit because his recklessness can lead to disciplinary issues and also gift opponents goalscoring opportunities. Martinez plays to the crowd too much, and that is a weakness in his game.
Here’s the “but” — he was outstanding in midfield against Aston Villa, so much so that he performed the No. 6 role better than any United player has for years. So maybe he has a big future in that role.
If he does, then he will earn a new deal for his value in midfield.
6. Luke Shaw is another player with 18 months left. Where does he fit?
Marcotti: He’s having the best season of his career in terms of fitness, so that’s a plus. But at this stage, I think he can really play only as a left-sided center back. Until you decide whether Amorim and his 3-4-2-1 formation are sticking around, it’s best not to do anything with him.
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Ogden: Shaw doesn’t fit in. He is too slow and immobile to play on the left of a back three, and he also makes too many defensive mistakes. He can no longer get up and down the flank to play as a wingback, and his use of the ball in attacking areas is too negative and cautious. It’s time to move him on in the summer.
7. And finally, Kobbie Mainoo. With 18 months left on his deal, does he have a spot in this side moving forward?
Marcotti: He hasn’t started a single game this season, which is absurd. He’s obviously not getting on the pitch while Amorim is manager, especially if Fernandes is fit, so it’s best to loan him out and get him minutes. You can then assess where you are in the summer.
Ogden: Amorim has started to talk about altering his system and if he does that, Mainoo might just have a future at United. As it stands, he has no role in a 3-4-3 formation, but as we saw at Euro 2024 with England alongside Declan Rice, Mainoo can thrive with a more defensive player next to him.
Mainoo is still only 20, so United should persevere with him and resist the urge to offload him. Try to iron out his flaws on the training ground instead of letting another club benefit from his talents.
8. Who do they want to shift in January?
Marcotti: Other than Mainoo, the obvious one is Joshua Zirkzee. I’d imagine we’re talking January loan with a view toward a summer deal, because you’d need to get more than €28 million in fees to avoid taking a hit in the books. Finding that kind of agreement might be tough.
The counterargument to shifting Zirkzee is that Benjamn Sesko on his own leaves you somewhat shorthanded in the front three.
2:06
Amorim jokes about injured Fernandes: ‘I don’t know if he wants my job’
Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim jokingly discusses Bruno Fernandes’ injury, including the leadership role he is taking while injured.
Ogden: “I agree on Zirkzee. He is nowhere near Premier League level, and Amorim seems to think this judging by how little he has used him. United won’t be any weaker without him if he leaves in January.
United can also raise funds — though not much — by moving in Tyrell Malacia and they would love to find a new team for Manuel Ugarte. However, they face a huge loss on the latter, so it’s unlikely that he’ll move next month.
9. Who should come in this January window?
Marcotti: There’s obviously a glaring hole in midfield, but I’m not sure United can fill it cost-effectively midseason. I’d work on finding a long-term solution in the summer and, if you feel you need a fourth option right now to get you back in the Champions League, explore the possibility of a short-term loan.
Even though English clubs are notoriously loathe to do that, United did it with Marcel Sabitzer a few years back.
Ogden: Conor Gallagher is a possibility on loan from Atletico Madrid, and there is plenty of noise surrounding Rúben Neves on loan from Al Hilal. I don’t think either are long-term solutions, but as per the Sabitzer suggestion, both would add experience and quality to the midfield if they arrived in January.
